Tom D. comments on I bet superforecaster David Manheim 2 k$ that the unemployment rate in the United States in 2027 will be lower than 8 %

[Tom D.]

Neglecting the risk of the bet not being fulfilled, it is worth it for me if my probability of winning is higher than ¹⁄₃ (= 1/​(2*10^3/​(1*10^3) + 1)).

I think you meant ²⁄₃ (payoff is 2:1 in favour of David)

[Vasco Grilo🔸]

Thanks, Tom! Yes, I meant ²⁄₃, and made the bet based on this. Corrected.