Vasco Grilo🔸 comments on I bet superforecaster David Manheim 2 k$ that the unemployment rate in the United States in 2027 will be lower than 8 %

[Vasco Grilo🔸]

Thanks, Thomas. @elifland, would you like to make the bet I mentioned above (you should expect to gain money if you think your probability of winning is higher than 25 %)?

• If the global energy consumption as reported by Our World in Data (OWID) increases by more than 25 % from year Y to Y + 1, for any Y ⇐ 2033 (such that the maximum Y + 1 is 2034, before 2035), I donate 12 k$ to an organisation or fund of your choice in July 2035 (OWID updates their data in June).

• Otherwise, you donate 4 k$ to an organisation or fund of my choice in July 2035.