Executive summary: An AI system estimates a 30-40% probability that a future artificial superintelligence (ASI) would severely harm humanity, which represents a serious existential risk deserving of more attention and proactive effort.
Key points:
The AI estimates a 70% probability of successfully developing ASI in the next 50-100 years.
It assigns a 60% probability that the ASI’s values/goals would be misaligned with humanity’s wellbeing, which could be catastrophic.
There is a 50% probability of failing to implement adequate AI safety measures and oversight.
An unaligned ASI has a 70% probability of overpowering humanity’s defenses.
The 30-40% existential risk estimate has high uncertainty but warrants much more attention and effort to reduce the risk as close to 0% as possible.
The author finds the AI’s estimate valuable, and believes that even a 1% existential risk from ASI is unacceptable.
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Executive summary: An AI system estimates a 30-40% probability that a future artificial superintelligence (ASI) would severely harm humanity, which represents a serious existential risk deserving of more attention and proactive effort.
Key points:
The AI estimates a 70% probability of successfully developing ASI in the next 50-100 years.
It assigns a 60% probability that the ASI’s values/goals would be misaligned with humanity’s wellbeing, which could be catastrophic.
There is a 50% probability of failing to implement adequate AI safety measures and oversight.
An unaligned ASI has a 70% probability of overpowering humanity’s defenses.
The 30-40% existential risk estimate has high uncertainty but warrants much more attention and effort to reduce the risk as close to 0% as possible.
The author finds the AI’s estimate valuable, and believes that even a 1% existential risk from ASI is unacceptable.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.