Hm, I agree that the most impactful careers are competitive, but the different careers themselves seem to require very different aptitudes and abilities so I’m not sure the same small group would be at the top of each of these career trajectories.
I agree with this. But I think adding all of these groups together won’t result in much more than the top 3% of the population. You don’t just need to be in the top 3% to be an AI safety researcher in terms of ability/aptitude for ML research, this will be much more selective. Say it’s 0.3%. Same goes for directing global aid budgets efficiently. While these paths require somewhat different abilities/aptitudes, proficiency in them will be very correlated with each other.
In my view the majority of people currently involved in EA could develop a skillset that’s quite useful for direct work.
I don’t disagree with this, but this is not the bar I have in mind. I think it’s worth trying your aptitude for direct work even if you are likely not in the top ~3% (often you won’t even know where you are!) but with the expectation that the majority of your impact may likely still come from your donations in the long term.
I agree with this. But I think adding all of these groups together won’t result in much more than the top 3% of the population. You don’t just need to be in the top 3% to be an AI safety researcher in terms of ability/aptitude for ML research, this will be much more selective. Say it’s 0.3%. Same goes for directing global aid budgets efficiently. While these paths require somewhat different abilities/aptitudes, proficiency in them will be very correlated with each other.
I don’t disagree with this, but this is not the bar I have in mind. I think it’s worth trying your aptitude for direct work even if you are likely not in the top ~3% (often you won’t even know where you are!) but with the expectation that the majority of your impact may likely still come from your donations in the long term.
That seems good to me!