I don’t think you should be treating points 1 to 3 as independent things. Even if AI is sandbagging, what we care about is whether it is sandbagging enough for it to be suddenly capable of world domination. I don’t know what evidence you have for sandbagging, but I’m betting it’s not finding that LLM’s are capable of major scientific discoveries but just deciding not to do them for some reason.
The two things that matter are how capable the next gen will be compared to the capability bar for conquering all of humanity against our will. I think the difficulty of world domination is truly ridiculously high compared to current-day LLMs. Even if I am overestimating the bar by a lot, and underestimating LLMs by a lot, it’s still not enough for the next-gen to be world domination capable.
I don’t think you should be treating points 1 to 3 as independent things. Even if AI is sandbagging, what we care about is whether it is sandbagging enough for it to be suddenly capable of world domination. I don’t know what evidence you have for sandbagging, but I’m betting it’s not finding that LLM’s are capable of major scientific discoveries but just deciding not to do them for some reason.
The two things that matter are how capable the next gen will be compared to the capability bar for conquering all of humanity against our will. I think the difficulty of world domination is truly ridiculously high compared to current-day LLMs. Even if I am overestimating the bar by a lot, and underestimating LLMs by a lot, it’s still not enough for the next-gen to be world domination capable.