I think your reasoning is generally correct. Another argument: If you believe things look sufficiently grim under short timelines, maybe you should invest under the assumption that a recession, or something else, will pop the AI bubble and gives us longer timelines.
I sold all my NVIDIA stock, since their moat looks weak to me:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rBx9RmJdBJgHkjL4j/will-openai-s-o3-reduce-nvidia-s-moat
I think your reasoning is generally correct. Another argument: If you believe things look sufficiently grim under short timelines, maybe you should invest under the assumption that a recession, or something else, will pop the AI bubble and gives us longer timelines.