I did not say Takakura has a discounting module and this is not changing the subject. What I said was:
I have an issue with Takakura and other models. All models I’ve seen measure climate impacts in a) a social cost of carbon, whose value is based on a pure time preference discount factor, or b) impacts by the end of the 21st century, which ignores impacts into future centuries.
Takakura has the latter problem, which is my issue with it as you use it.
If we are at a hingey time due to AI and bio, and climate does not affect the hingeyness of this century, then it does not have much impact on the long-term.
This doesn’t seem right as a criterion and is also counter to some examples of longtermist success. For example, the campaign to reduce slavery improved the long term by eliminating a factor that would have caused recurring damage over the long term. Climate mitigation reduces a recurring damage over the long term: if that recurring damage each year is large enough, it can be an important longtermist area. My point is that the impacts of climate in the 21st century are probably a substantial underestimate of their total long-term impact. It’s totally possible that when you account for the total impact it is still not important, but that doesn’t follow automatically from climates effect on hingeyness.
I’m not sure I understand your second comment. ‘hingey’ means that we are living at the most influential time ever. This includes things like value change around slavery.
I did not say Takakura has a discounting module and this is not changing the subject. What I said was:
Takakura has the latter problem, which is my issue with it as you use it.
This doesn’t seem right as a criterion and is also counter to some examples of longtermist success. For example, the campaign to reduce slavery improved the long term by eliminating a factor that would have caused recurring damage over the long term. Climate mitigation reduces a recurring damage over the long term: if that recurring damage each year is large enough, it can be an important longtermist area. My point is that the impacts of climate in the 21st century are probably a substantial underestimate of their total long-term impact. It’s totally possible that when you account for the total impact it is still not important, but that doesn’t follow automatically from climates effect on hingeyness.
Fair enough on your Takakura point, I misread.
I’m not sure I understand your second comment. ‘hingey’ means that we are living at the most influential time ever. This includes things like value change around slavery.