Are you making short term (e.g. 1 year) AI-related forecasts, too? It would be helpful to figure out how much weight to give to your forecasts in this domain (and between individual forecasters), and may also give useful feedback for your longer range forecasts.
I’ve preregistered a bunch of soft expectations about the next generation of LLMs and encouraged others in the group to do the same. But I don’t intend to share mine on the Forum. I haven’t written down my year-by-year expectations with a reasonable amount of detail yet.
Are you making short term (e.g. 1 year) AI-related forecasts, too? It would be helpful to figure out how much weight to give to your forecasts in this domain (and between individual forecasters), and may also give useful feedback for your longer range forecasts.
I’ve preregistered a bunch of soft expectations about the next generation of LLMs and encouraged others in the group to do the same. But I don’t intend to share mine on the Forum. I haven’t written down my year-by-year expectations with a reasonable amount of detail yet.