Fair enough. I think people conceive of AGI too monolithically, and don’t sufficiently distinguish between the risk profiles of different trajectories. The difference between economic impact and x-risk is the most important, but I think it’s also worth forecasting domain-specific capabilities (natural language, robotics, computer vision, etc). Gesturing towards “the concept we all agree exists but can’t define” is totally fair, but I think the concept you’re gesturing towards breaks down in important ways.
Fair enough. I think people conceive of AGI too monolithically, and don’t sufficiently distinguish between the risk profiles of different trajectories. The difference between economic impact and x-risk is the most important, but I think it’s also worth forecasting domain-specific capabilities (natural language, robotics, computer vision, etc). Gesturing towards “the concept we all agree exists but can’t define” is totally fair, but I think the concept you’re gesturing towards breaks down in important ways.