Executive summary: Despite hype, preliminary analysis suggests that generative AI has not yet led Y Combinator startups to grow faster in terms of valuations, though measurement issues, macroeconomic headwinds, and the possibility of delayed effects leave room for uncertainty.
Key points:
The author tested Garry Tan’s claim that YC companies are growing faster due to GenAI, but found that post-ChatGPT cohorts (2023+) show lower average valuations and few top performers compared to earlier batches.
Only two GenAI companies (Tennr and Legora) appear in the top-20 fastest-growing YC startups by valuation, suggesting GenAI hasn’t broadly transformed YC outcomes yet.
Data limitations (sparse valuation data, LLM scraping errors, name duplication) and confounders (interest rates, secular decline in YC quality) mean the results should be interpreted cautiously.
Stripe’s revenue data shows faster growth for AI firms, but this may not translate into higher valuations due to poor margins and lower revenue multiples; Carta’s funding data supports the “no acceleration” view.
The author argues that YC may not be the right reference class for GenAI success, since most leading AI companies (Anthropic, Cursor, Wiz, etc.) are not YC-backed.
Tentative conclusion: GenAI hasn’t yet shortened exit timelines for startups, though future shifts remain possible; YC’s diminished role could even reflect AI making traditional accelerators less necessary.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Despite hype, preliminary analysis suggests that generative AI has not yet led Y Combinator startups to grow faster in terms of valuations, though measurement issues, macroeconomic headwinds, and the possibility of delayed effects leave room for uncertainty.
Key points:
The author tested Garry Tan’s claim that YC companies are growing faster due to GenAI, but found that post-ChatGPT cohorts (2023+) show lower average valuations and few top performers compared to earlier batches.
Only two GenAI companies (Tennr and Legora) appear in the top-20 fastest-growing YC startups by valuation, suggesting GenAI hasn’t broadly transformed YC outcomes yet.
Data limitations (sparse valuation data, LLM scraping errors, name duplication) and confounders (interest rates, secular decline in YC quality) mean the results should be interpreted cautiously.
Stripe’s revenue data shows faster growth for AI firms, but this may not translate into higher valuations due to poor margins and lower revenue multiples; Carta’s funding data supports the “no acceleration” view.
The author argues that YC may not be the right reference class for GenAI success, since most leading AI companies (Anthropic, Cursor, Wiz, etc.) are not YC-backed.
Tentative conclusion: GenAI hasn’t yet shortened exit timelines for startups, though future shifts remain possible; YC’s diminished role could even reflect AI making traditional accelerators less necessary.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.