Option 3 has been made precise with bracketing: overview and paper. I think this shows why it is not clear how “some subset” is defined even when we have a clear idea of what we want it to track (for top-down bracketing: the effects we’re not clueless about taken as widely as possible).
The problem with carving up effects is with choosing which locations of value to discount when they have determinate sign on their own (so not clueless) but not in aggregate (so clueless). Clifton gives a clear example in the overview post and this seems to apply to your CHA: an intervention reducing animal product consumption has positive EV for farmed animals, negative for wild animals, and indeterminate in aggregate. I do not think that the test you propose resolves this conflict since both groupings pass it (each has determinate sign on its own). So there may be multiple conflicting ways to draw the cluelessness horizon and picking some privileged way to draw them requires justifying it over all the others. (Note on footnote 11: I don’t think this is waivable with anit-scepticism since these are genuinely different ways to draw the line and not just our inability to draw.)
Option 3 has been made precise with bracketing: overview and paper. I think this shows why it is not clear how “some subset” is defined even when we have a clear idea of what we want it to track (for top-down bracketing: the effects we’re not clueless about taken as widely as possible).
The problem with carving up effects is with choosing which locations of value to discount when they have determinate sign on their own (so not clueless) but not in aggregate (so clueless). Clifton gives a clear example in the overview post and this seems to apply to your CHA: an intervention reducing animal product consumption has positive EV for farmed animals, negative for wild animals, and indeterminate in aggregate. I do not think that the test you propose resolves this conflict since both groupings pass it (each has determinate sign on its own). So there may be multiple conflicting ways to draw the cluelessness horizon and picking some privileged way to draw them requires justifying it over all the others. (Note on footnote 11: I don’t think this is waivable with anit-scepticism since these are genuinely different ways to draw the line and not just our inability to draw.)