I like this. I would maybe add these couple of points:
- “Cluelessness horizon” has a solid theoretical basis to it: human society is complex enough nonlinear system in which small differences can propagate to cause large changes. It may or may not be “chaotic system” in a strict mathematical sense, but it is non linear enough to say with some confidence that there is a finite horizon for predicting consequences of a particular event.
- There is no baseline. “Inaction” has the exact long tail of possible consequances any action does. One is affecting the world whether they donate 100 dollars to bed nets, spend it in a bar or light it on fire.
So everything disappears into uncertainty past a certain horizon. Only consequences that are before that event horizon matter for our decisions, and here bed nets are a very good candidate.
I like this. I would maybe add these couple of points:
- “Cluelessness horizon” has a solid theoretical basis to it: human society is complex enough nonlinear system in which small differences can propagate to cause large changes. It may or may not be “chaotic system” in a strict mathematical sense, but it is non linear enough to say with some confidence that there is a finite horizon for predicting consequences of a particular event.
- There is no baseline. “Inaction” has the exact long tail of possible consequances any action does. One is affecting the world whether they donate 100 dollars to bed nets, spend it in a bar or light it on fire.
So everything disappears into uncertainty past a certain horizon. Only consequences that are before that event horizon matter for our decisions, and here bed nets are a very good candidate.