The quote was “almost permanently,” which I took to mean something like: of sufficient permanence that for purposes of the topic of the post—focusing on cause areas vs. focusing on EA (in the medium run is implied to me) -- we can assume that global health and development will remain a pressing cause area (although possibly relatively less pressing than a new cause area—point four).
I don’t think that’s inconsistent with a view that GHD probably won’t be a pressing cause area in, say, 250 years. Knowing whether it will or won’t doesn’t materially affect my answer to the question posed in the original post. (My ability to predict 250 years into the future is poor, so I have low confidence about the importance of GHD at that time. Or just about anything else, for that matter.)
Anyway, I am wondering if part of the disagreement is that we’re partially talking about somewhat different things.
I might be wrong but I think “almost” was an addition and not there originally. It still reads weirdly to me.
From the follow-on comments I think freedomandutility expects GHD to be a top cause area beyond 250 years from now. I doubt this and even now I put GHD behind reducing animal suffering and longtermist areas so there does seem to be some disagreement here (which is fine!).
EDIT: actually I am wrong because I quoted the word “almost” in my original comment. Still reads weird to me.
The quote was “almost permanently,” which I took to mean something like: of sufficient permanence that for purposes of the topic of the post—focusing on cause areas vs. focusing on EA (in the medium run is implied to me) -- we can assume that global health and development will remain a pressing cause area (although possibly relatively less pressing than a new cause area—point four).
I don’t think that’s inconsistent with a view that GHD probably won’t be a pressing cause area in, say, 250 years. Knowing whether it will or won’t doesn’t materially affect my answer to the question posed in the original post. (My ability to predict 250 years into the future is poor, so I have low confidence about the importance of GHD at that time. Or just about anything else, for that matter.)
Anyway, I am wondering if part of the disagreement is that we’re partially talking about somewhat different things.
I might be wrong but I think “almost” was an addition and not there originally. It still reads weirdly to me.
From the follow-on comments I think freedomandutility expects GHD to be a top cause area beyond 250 years from now. I doubt this and even now I put GHD behind reducing animal suffering and longtermist areas so there does seem to be some disagreement here (which is fine!).
EDIT: actually I am wrong because I quoted the word “almost” in my original comment. Still reads weird to me.