I find a posterior of a 1-order-of-magnitude difference within reach quite surprising.
1 t/£ is estimated to be about 1 (= log10(1/0.0722)) order of magnitude (OOM) higher than the cost-effectiveness of tree planting in the UK. However, the difference to the projects funded by CCF may be quite larger. Fitting a lognormal distribution with 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles equal to the lower and upper bound of the 95 % confidence interval you guessed (with the disclaimer that it should not be intended a resilient estimate) leads to a mean of 2.34 kt/$. This is about 5 (= log10(2.34 k / 0.0722)) orders of magnitude higher than the cost-effectiveness of tree planting for the UK.
Hi Johannes,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
1 t/£ is estimated to be about 1 (= log10(1/0.0722)) order of magnitude (OOM) higher than the cost-effectiveness of tree planting in the UK. However, the difference to the projects funded by CCF may be quite larger. Fitting a lognormal distribution with 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles equal to the lower and upper bound of the 95 % confidence interval you guessed (with the disclaimer that it should not be intended a resilient estimate) leads to a mean of 2.34 kt/$. This is about 5 (= log10(2.34 k / 0.0722)) orders of magnitude higher than the cost-effectiveness of tree planting for the UK.
Thanks! Yeah, a five OOM difference sounds more like what I would expect, indeed.