You’re welcome, of course, and thank you for your courtesy in replying.
I don’t have time, money, training or resources to explore climate in more detail, but if I could, I would start with developing more sophisticated computer models that incorporate more physical processes deciding changes to tipping elements (for example, meltwater drainage on Greenland). Existing atmospheric models use a mesh that is too coarse, making predictions translate from climate to weather poorly. Ocean modeling is hopeless at current atmospheric mesh size, we need 1km meshes or better for climate models, not the much larger meshes in use for the atmosphere. Dedication of more and faster computer resources to climate modeling would be helpful.
However, different methodologies applied to develop less sophisticated models can still produce general foresight that limits or suggests available policy options to prevent climate-related crises. This runs into political interests ultimately concerned with the welfare of a small percentage of the global population, whose false sense of security and selfishness is actually in the way of preserving civilization.
Regardless, the survival of humanity, if that is what this fiasco comes to, could depend on terraforming this planet back to an 1800′s state. Well before then, we need very fine mesh computer models, as well as better understanding of ecosystems and practical means to create and quickly evolve new species. An alternative would be local-scale weather and ecosystem control, allowing a small area of land to have mild weather and favorable living conditions, allowing one city or small country to flourish, though that combination of advanced technology and a small human population might not work on its own. The trouble with humans and technology is that we are not born with the learnings of our parents, so a small population supported by technology that is magic to us, and whose ecosystem also depends on that technology, won’t last, unless we’ve locked in some AI or AL running it that understands it. That issue makes me think we’re better off with a planet that is habitable in many areas, not one with a small green zone run by some effectively alien technology. If that whole discussion seems implausible, that is because it absolutely is implausible.
While as a longtermist, I can see the value of having a small human population reached equitably through family planning over a few centuries, that should be achieved without large losses of existing global population. That means protecting against climate change catastrophe and systemic effects. Implying, for this century, degrowth and energy conservation and the end of consumerism, and less emphasis on democratization of advanced technologies. But all that has to happen soon to preserve most of the global population from early death.
I have watched Kemp’s lecture on foreseeing the end of the world. The discussion is about how to layer forecasting and foreseeing methods to improve prediction of existential crises, something still in the exploratory stages. Don’t associate my own conclusions with his, my weird opinions are my own, but I recommend his work.
You folks do a lot of forecasting, but foreseeing is worth exploring as well. I see the same forks in the road, but only foresee the negative ones as least surprising. Climate destruction is not a hopeless situation though, but not hopeless for whom living how? That’s the bigger question, and a worrisome one. There’s no solutions without compromises, particularly for utilitarians , that is, absent the longtermist “far future trillions of people” take, where current population is a just a blip anyway. And that’s why I’ve said before, only future people that will exist have moral status. Present people do have moral status. Present people matter, including those in the womb. Future people? Only if they will actually be alive at some point.
Climate destruction, as assessed by MacAskill’s book and Halstead’s analysis, is difficult to take seriously. You EA folks could use something better, considering your interest in preventing existential dangers. In general, EA’s massively underestimate the climate change threat to civilization, and appear to prefer techno-optimist solutions regardless, which multiplies environmental and resource management concerns for utilitarians when turned into policy.
Anyway, I envy your position as someone actively involved in foresight and forecasting, as well as your efforts to suggest policy. Congratulations on that opportunity! I have not looked into the climate nonprofit that you recommend, but I hope their work is good.
You’re welcome, of course, and thank you for your courtesy in replying.
I don’t have time, money, training or resources to explore climate in more detail, but if I could, I would start with developing more sophisticated computer models that incorporate more physical processes deciding changes to tipping elements (for example, meltwater drainage on Greenland). Existing atmospheric models use a mesh that is too coarse, making predictions translate from climate to weather poorly. Ocean modeling is hopeless at current atmospheric mesh size, we need 1km meshes or better for climate models, not the much larger meshes in use for the atmosphere. Dedication of more and faster computer resources to climate modeling would be helpful.
However, different methodologies applied to develop less sophisticated models can still produce general foresight that limits or suggests available policy options to prevent climate-related crises. This runs into political interests ultimately concerned with the welfare of a small percentage of the global population, whose false sense of security and selfishness is actually in the way of preserving civilization.
Regardless, the survival of humanity, if that is what this fiasco comes to, could depend on terraforming this planet back to an 1800′s state. Well before then, we need very fine mesh computer models, as well as better understanding of ecosystems and practical means to create and quickly evolve new species. An alternative would be local-scale weather and ecosystem control, allowing a small area of land to have mild weather and favorable living conditions, allowing one city or small country to flourish, though that combination of advanced technology and a small human population might not work on its own. The trouble with humans and technology is that we are not born with the learnings of our parents, so a small population supported by technology that is magic to us, and whose ecosystem also depends on that technology, won’t last, unless we’ve locked in some AI or AL running it that understands it. That issue makes me think we’re better off with a planet that is habitable in many areas, not one with a small green zone run by some effectively alien technology. If that whole discussion seems implausible, that is because it absolutely is implausible.
While as a longtermist, I can see the value of having a small human population reached equitably through family planning over a few centuries, that should be achieved without large losses of existing global population. That means protecting against climate change catastrophe and systemic effects. Implying, for this century, degrowth and energy conservation and the end of consumerism, and less emphasis on democratization of advanced technologies. But all that has to happen soon to preserve most of the global population from early death.
I have watched Kemp’s lecture on foreseeing the end of the world. The discussion is about how to layer forecasting and foreseeing methods to improve prediction of existential crises, something still in the exploratory stages. Don’t associate my own conclusions with his, my weird opinions are my own, but I recommend his work.
You folks do a lot of forecasting, but foreseeing is worth exploring as well. I see the same forks in the road, but only foresee the negative ones as least surprising. Climate destruction is not a hopeless situation though, but not hopeless for whom living how? That’s the bigger question, and a worrisome one. There’s no solutions without compromises, particularly for utilitarians , that is, absent the longtermist “far future trillions of people” take, where current population is a just a blip anyway. And that’s why I’ve said before, only future people that will exist have moral status. Present people do have moral status. Present people matter, including those in the womb. Future people? Only if they will actually be alive at some point.
Climate destruction, as assessed by MacAskill’s book and Halstead’s analysis, is difficult to take seriously. You EA folks could use something better, considering your interest in preventing existential dangers. In general, EA’s massively underestimate the climate change threat to civilization, and appear to prefer techno-optimist solutions regardless, which multiplies environmental and resource management concerns for utilitarians when turned into policy.
Anyway, I envy your position as someone actively involved in foresight and forecasting, as well as your efforts to suggest policy. Congratulations on that opportunity! I have not looked into the climate nonprofit that you recommend, but I hope their work is good.