I think it’s worth trying. My model is that making a good first impression with a top IMO performer is easily worth $50+, and I think the logistical overhead plays out such that I think you pay about $30 additional dollars to make a significantly better impression than by handing out a small 16-chapter booklet, which seems worth it.
Money-wise this strikes me as a fine thing to try. I’m a little worried that sending people the entire book set might cause some people to not read it who would have read a booklet, because they’re intimidated by the size of the thing.
Psychologically, people generally need more buy-in to decide “I’ll read the first few chapters of this 1800-page multi-volume book and see what I think” than to decide “I’ll read the first few chapters of this 200-page book that has five sequels and see what I think”, and even if the intended framing is the latter one, sending all 1800 pages at once might cause some people to shift to the former frame.
One thing that can help with this is to split HPMoR up into six volumes rather than four, corresponding to the book boundaries Eliezer proposed (though it seems fine to me if they’re titled ‘HPMoR Vol. 1’ etc.). Then the first volume or two will be shorter, and feel more manageable. Then perhaps just send the first 3 (or 2?) volumes, and include a note saying something like ’If you like these books, shoot us an email at [email] and we’ll ship you the second half of the story, also available on hpmor.com.′
This further carves up the reading into manageable subtasks in a physical, perceptual way. It does carry the risk that some people might stop when they get through the initial volumes. It might be a benefit in its own right to cause email conversations to happen, though, since a back-and-forth can lead to other useful things happening.
The thing that makes me more optimistic here is that the organizers of IMO and EGMO themselves have read HPMoR, and that the books are (as far as I understand it) handed out as part of the prize-package of IMO and EGMO.
I think this makes it more natural to award a large significant-seeming prize, and also comes with a strong encouragement to actually give the books a try.
My model is that only awarding the first book would feel a lot less significant, and my current models of human psychology suggests that while it is the case that some people will feel intimidated by the length of the book, the combined effect of being given a much smaller-seeming gift plus the inconvenience of having to send an email or fill out a form or go to a website to continue reading the book is larger than the effect of the size of the book being overwhelming.
The other thing that having full physical copies enables is book-lending. I printed a full copy of HPMoR a few years ago and have borrowed it out to at least 5 people, maybe one of which would have read the book if I had just sent them a link or just borrowed them the first few chapters (I have given out the small booklets and generally had less success at that than loaning parts of my whole printed book series).
However, I am not super confident of this, and the tradeoff strikes me as relatively close. I yesterday also had a longer conversation about this on the EA-Corner discord and after chatting with me for a while a lot of people seemed to think that giving out the whole book was a better idea, but it did take a while, which is some evidence of inferential distance.
That all makes sense. In principle I like the idea of trying both options at some point, in case one turns out to be obviously better. I do think that splitting things up into 6 books is better than 4, cost allowing, so that the first effort chunk feels smaller.
Oliver, Rob, and others thank you for your thoughts. 1. I don’t think that experimenting with the variants is an option for EGMO [severe time constraints]. 2. For IMO we have more than enough time, and I will incorporate the feedback and considerations into my decision-making.
Food for thought: just in thinking how to maximize the value of experimenting with distribution; an alternative approach would be to print the first book and distribute to the math olympiads then invest the rest of the money into converting HPMOR into a podcast/audiobook that can be shared more widely and outlining a “next steps” resource to guide readers. If distributing the books fails (depending on your definition of distribution being a “success”) you avoid sinking $28k into books sitting on shelves at home and now have a widely available podcast (to access for free or a small donation) that can increase HPMOR’s reach over time. (FYI the funds raised through small donations for access could be used to sponsor future printings for youth competitions).
A podcast or a revamped online version becomes a renewable resource, whereas once those books are distributed, they (and the money) are gone. For those interested, the model that comes to mind is HP and the Sacred Text. Using Harry Potter to convey certain ideas or messages is not uncommon given its global reach. HPST is using it for different reasons obviously but HOW they are distributing the idea might be worth pursing with HPMOR too. HP Alliance is another group using HP to convey a message (their focus is on political and social activism). HPMOR could have greater value long-term if there were alternative methods for accessing it beyond a 2000 page series.
This is great, thank you! Surprised I haven’t stumbled across this before… Even better if it’s already an available resource, it seems worth sharing with the IMO students and other relevant groups (which was the essence of my suggestion above).
I think it’s worth trying. My model is that making a good first impression with a top IMO performer is easily worth $50+, and I think the logistical overhead plays out such that I think you pay about $30 additional dollars to make a significantly better impression than by handing out a small 16-chapter booklet, which seems worth it.
Money-wise this strikes me as a fine thing to try. I’m a little worried that sending people the entire book set might cause some people to not read it who would have read a booklet, because they’re intimidated by the size of the thing.
Psychologically, people generally need more buy-in to decide “I’ll read the first few chapters of this 1800-page multi-volume book and see what I think” than to decide “I’ll read the first few chapters of this 200-page book that has five sequels and see what I think”, and even if the intended framing is the latter one, sending all 1800 pages at once might cause some people to shift to the former frame.
One thing that can help with this is to split HPMoR up into six volumes rather than four, corresponding to the book boundaries Eliezer proposed (though it seems fine to me if they’re titled ‘HPMoR Vol. 1’ etc.). Then the first volume or two will be shorter, and feel more manageable. Then perhaps just send the first 3 (or 2?) volumes, and include a note saying something like ’If you like these books, shoot us an email at [email] and we’ll ship you the second half of the story, also available on hpmor.com.′
This further carves up the reading into manageable subtasks in a physical, perceptual way. It does carry the risk that some people might stop when they get through the initial volumes. It might be a benefit in its own right to cause email conversations to happen, though, since a back-and-forth can lead to other useful things happening.
The thing that makes me more optimistic here is that the organizers of IMO and EGMO themselves have read HPMoR, and that the books are (as far as I understand it) handed out as part of the prize-package of IMO and EGMO.
I think this makes it more natural to award a large significant-seeming prize, and also comes with a strong encouragement to actually give the books a try.
My model is that only awarding the first book would feel a lot less significant, and my current models of human psychology suggests that while it is the case that some people will feel intimidated by the length of the book, the combined effect of being given a much smaller-seeming gift plus the inconvenience of having to send an email or fill out a form or go to a website to continue reading the book is larger than the effect of the size of the book being overwhelming.
The other thing that having full physical copies enables is book-lending. I printed a full copy of HPMoR a few years ago and have borrowed it out to at least 5 people, maybe one of which would have read the book if I had just sent them a link or just borrowed them the first few chapters (I have given out the small booklets and generally had less success at that than loaning parts of my whole printed book series).
However, I am not super confident of this, and the tradeoff strikes me as relatively close. I yesterday also had a longer conversation about this on the EA-Corner discord and after chatting with me for a while a lot of people seemed to think that giving out the whole book was a better idea, but it did take a while, which is some evidence of inferential distance.
That all makes sense. In principle I like the idea of trying both options at some point, in case one turns out to be obviously better. I do think that splitting things up into 6 books is better than 4, cost allowing, so that the first effort chunk feels smaller.
I do agree with that, and this also establishes a canonical way of breaking the books up into parts. @Misha: Do you think that’s an option?
Oliver, Rob, and others thank you for your thoughts.
1. I don’t think that experimenting with the variants is an option for EGMO [severe time constraints].
2. For IMO we have more than enough time, and I will incorporate the feedback and considerations into my decision-making.
Food for thought: just in thinking how to maximize the value of experimenting with distribution; an alternative approach would be to print the first book and distribute to the math olympiads then invest the rest of the money into converting HPMOR into a podcast/audiobook that can be shared more widely and outlining a “next steps” resource to guide readers. If distributing the books fails (depending on your definition of distribution being a “success”) you avoid sinking $28k into books sitting on shelves at home and now have a widely available podcast (to access for free or a small donation) that can increase HPMOR’s reach over time. (FYI the funds raised through small donations for access could be used to sponsor future printings for youth competitions).
A podcast or a revamped online version becomes a renewable resource, whereas once those books are distributed, they (and the money) are gone. For those interested, the model that comes to mind is HP and the Sacred Text. Using Harry Potter to convey certain ideas or messages is not uncommon given its global reach. HPST is using it for different reasons obviously but HOW they are distributing the idea might be worth pursing with HPMOR too. HP Alliance is another group using HP to convey a message (their focus is on political and social activism). HPMOR could have greater value long-term if there were alternative methods for accessing it beyond a 2000 page series.
A high quality podcast has been made (for free, by the excellent fanbase). It’s at www.hpmorpodcast.com.
This is great, thank you! Surprised I haven’t stumbled across this before… Even better if it’s already an available resource, it seems worth sharing with the IMO students and other relevant groups (which was the essence of my suggestion above).