Summary: This is the most substantial round of grant recommendations from the EA Long-Term Future Fund to date, so it is a good opportunity to evaluate the performance of the Fund after changes to its management structure in the last year. I am measuring the performance of the EA Funds on the basis of what I am calling ‘counterfactually unique’ grant recommendations. I.e., grant recommendations that, without the Long-Term Future Fund, individual donors nor larger grantmakers like the Open Philanthropy Project would have identified or funded.
Based on that measure, 20 of 23, or 87%, grant recommendations, worth $673,150 of $923,150, or ~73% of the money to be disbursed, are counterfactually unique. Having read all the comments, multiple concerns with a few specific grants came up, based on uncertainty or controversy in the estimation of value of these grant recommendations. Even if we exclude those grants from the estimate of counterfactually unique grant recommendations to make a ‘conservative’ estimate, 16 of 23, or 69.5%, of grants, worth $535,150 of $923,150, or ~58%, of the money to be disbursed, are counterfactually unique and fit into a more conservative, risk-averse approach that would have ruled out more uncertain or controversial successful grant applicants.
These numbers are an extremely significant improvement in the quality and quantity of unique opportunities for grantmaking the Long-Term Future Fund has made since a year ago. This grant report generally succeeds at achieving a goal of coordinating donations through the EA Funds to unique recipients who otherwise would have been overlooked for funding by individual donors and larger grantmakers. This report is also the most detailed of its kind, and creates an opportunity to create a detailed assessment of the Long-Term Future Fund’s track record going forward. I hope the other EA Funds emulate and build on this approach.
I’m skeptical this will solve the underlying problem. Presumably they organically came across plenty of possible grants – if this was truly a ‘lower barrier to giving’ vehicle than OpenPhil they would have just made those grants. It is possible, however, that more managers will help them find more non-controversial ideas to fund.
To clarify, the purpose of the EA Funds has been to allow individual donors relatively smaller than grantmakers like the Open Philanthropy Project (including all donors in EA except other professional, private, non-profit grantmaking organizations) to identify higher-risk grants for projects that are still small enough that they would be missed by an organization like Open Phil. So, for a respective cause area, an EA Fund functions as like an index fund that incentivizes the launch of nascent projects, organizations, and research in the EA community.
Of the $923,150 of grant recommendations made to Centre for Effective Altruism for the EA Long-Term Future Fund this round of grantmaking, all but $250,000 of it went to the kind of projects or organizations that the Open Philanthropy Project tends to make. To clarify, there isn’t a rule or practice of the EA Funds not making those kinds of grant. It’s at the discretion of the fund managers to decide if they should recommend grants at a given time to more typical grant recipients in their cause area, or to newer, smaller, and/or less-established projects/organizations. At the time of this grantmaking round, recommendations to better-established organizations like MIRI, CFAR, and Ought were considered the best proportional use of marginal funds allotted for disbursement at this time.
20 (~87% of total number) grant recommendations totalling $723,150 = ~73%
+ 3 (~13% of total number) grant recommendations totalling $200,00 = ~27%
= 23 grant (in total) recommendations totalling $923,150 = 100%
Since this is the most extensive round of grant recommendations from the Long-Term Future Fund to date with the EA Funds’ new management structure, this is the best apparent opportunity for evaluating the success of the changes made to how the EA Funds are managed. In this round of grantmaking, 87% of the total number of grant recommendations were for efforts of individuals, totalling 73% of the total amount of money that would be disbursed for these grants, that would otherwise have been missed by individual donors, or larger grantmaking bodies.
In other words, the Long-Term Future (LTF) Fund is directly responsible for 87% of 23 grant recommendations made, totalling 73% of $923.15K worth of unique grants, that, presumably, would not have been counterfactually identified had individual donors not been able to pool and coordinate their donations through the LTF Fund. I keep highlighting these numbers, because they can essentially be thought of as the LTF Funds’ current rate of efficiency in fulfilling the purposes it was set up for.
Criticisms and Conservative Estimates
Above is the estimate for the number of grants, and the amount of donations to the EA Funds, that are counterfactually unique to the EA Funds, and can be thought of how effective the impact of the Long-Term Future Fund in particular is. That is the estimate for the grants donors to the EA Funds very probably could not have identified by themselves. Yet another question is would they opt to donate to the grant recommendations that have been just been made by the LTF fund managers? Part of the basis for the EA Funds thus far is to trust the fund mangers’ individual discretion based on their years of expertise or professional experience working in the respective cause area. My above estimates are based on the assumption all the counterfactually unique grant recommendations the LTF Funds make are indeed effective. We can think of those numbers as a ‘liberal’ estimate.
I’ve at least skimmed or read all 180+ comments on this post thus far, and a few persistent concerns with the grant recommendations have stood out. These were concerns that the evidence basis on which some grant recommendations were made wasn’t sufficient to justify the grant, i.e., they were ‘too risky.’ If we exclude grant recommendations that are subject to multiple, unresolved concerns from the LTF Funds, we can make a ‘conservative’ estimate of the percentage and dollar value of counterfactually unique grant recommendations made by the LTF Fund.
Concerns with 1 grant recommendations worth $28,000 to hand out printed copies of fanfiction HPMoR to international math competition medalists.
Concerns with 2 grant recommendations worth $40,000 for individuals who are not currently pursuing one or more specific, concrete projects, but rather are pursuing independent research or self-development. The concern is the grant is based on the fund manager’s (managers’ ?) personal confidence in the individual, and even explication for the grant recommendations expressed concern with the uncertainty in the value of grants like these.
Concerns that with multiple grants made to similar forecasting-based projects, there would be redundancy, in particular concern with 1 grant recommendation worth $70,000 to forecasting company Metaculus that might be better suited to an investment for equity in a startup rather than a grant from a non-profit foundation.
In total, these are 4 grants worth $138,000 that multiple commenters have raised concerns with on the basis the uncertainty for these grants means the grant recommendations don’t seem justified. To clarify, I am not making an assumption about the value of these grants are. All I would say about these particular grants is they are unconventional, but that insofar as the EA Funds are intended to be a kind of index fund willing to back more experimental efforts, these projects fit within the established expectations of how the EA Funds are to be manged. Reading all the comments, the one helpful, concrete suggestion was for the LTF Fund to follow-up in the future with grant recipients and publish their takeaways from the grants.
Of the 20 recommendations made for unique grant recipients worth $673,150, if we were to exclude these 4 recommendations worth $138,000, that leaves 16 of 23, or 69.5% of total recommendations, worth $535,150 of $923,150, or ~58% worth of the total grant recommendations, uniquely attributable to the EA Funds. Again, those grant recommendations excluded from this ‘conservative’ estimate are ruled out based on the uncertainty or lack of confidence in them from commenters, not necessarily the fund managers themselves. While presumably any of the value of any grant recommendation could be disputed, these are the only grant recipients for which multiple commenters have made raised still-unresolved concerns so far. These grants are still initially being made, so whether the best hopes of the fund managers for the value of each of these grants will be borne out is something to follow-up with in the future.
Conclusion
While these numbers don’t address suggestions for how the management of the Long-Term Future Fund can still be improved, overall I would say these numbers show the Long-Term Future Fund has made extremely significant improvement since last year at achieving a high rate of counterfactually unique grants to more nascent or experimental projects that are typically missed in EA donations. I think with some suggested improvements like hiring some professional clerical assistance with managing the Long-Term Future Fund, the Long-Term Future Fund is employing a successful approach to making unique grants. I hope the other EA Funds try emulating and building on this approach. The EA Funds are still relatively new, and so to measure their track record of success with their grants remains to be done, but this report provides a great foundation to start doing so.
So, for a respective cause area, an EA Fund functions as like an index fund that incentivizes the launch of nascent projects, organizations, and research in the EA community.
You mean it functions like a venture capital fund or angel investor?
Summary: This is the most substantial round of grant recommendations from the EA Long-Term Future Fund to date, so it is a good opportunity to evaluate the performance of the Fund after changes to its management structure in the last year. I am measuring the performance of the EA Funds on the basis of what I am calling ‘counterfactually unique’ grant recommendations. I.e., grant recommendations that, without the Long-Term Future Fund, individual donors nor larger grantmakers like the Open Philanthropy Project would have identified or funded.
Based on that measure, 20 of 23, or 87%, grant recommendations, worth $673,150 of $923,150, or ~73% of the money to be disbursed, are counterfactually unique. Having read all the comments, multiple concerns with a few specific grants came up, based on uncertainty or controversy in the estimation of value of these grant recommendations. Even if we exclude those grants from the estimate of counterfactually unique grant recommendations to make a ‘conservative’ estimate, 16 of 23, or 69.5%, of grants, worth $535,150 of $923,150, or ~58%, of the money to be disbursed, are counterfactually unique and fit into a more conservative, risk-averse approach that would have ruled out more uncertain or controversial successful grant applicants.
These numbers are an extremely significant improvement in the quality and quantity of unique opportunities for grantmaking the Long-Term Future Fund has made since a year ago. This grant report generally succeeds at achieving a goal of coordinating donations through the EA Funds to unique recipients who otherwise would have been overlooked for funding by individual donors and larger grantmakers. This report is also the most detailed of its kind, and creates an opportunity to create a detailed assessment of the Long-Term Future Fund’s track record going forward. I hope the other EA Funds emulate and build on this approach.
General Assessment
In his 2018 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison, Larks had the following to say about changes in the management structure of the EA Funds.
To clarify, the purpose of the EA Funds has been to allow individual donors relatively smaller than grantmakers like the Open Philanthropy Project (including all donors in EA except other professional, private, non-profit grantmaking organizations) to identify higher-risk grants for projects that are still small enough that they would be missed by an organization like Open Phil. So, for a respective cause area, an EA Fund functions as like an index fund that incentivizes the launch of nascent projects, organizations, and research in the EA community.
Of the $923,150 of grant recommendations made to Centre for Effective Altruism for the EA Long-Term Future Fund this round of grantmaking, all but $250,000 of it went to the kind of projects or organizations that the Open Philanthropy Project tends to make. To clarify, there isn’t a rule or practice of the EA Funds not making those kinds of grant. It’s at the discretion of the fund managers to decide if they should recommend grants at a given time to more typical grant recipients in their cause area, or to newer, smaller, and/or less-established projects/organizations. At the time of this grantmaking round, recommendations to better-established organizations like MIRI, CFAR, and Ought were considered the best proportional use of marginal funds allotted for disbursement at this time.
20 (~87% of total number) grant recommendations totalling $723,150 = ~73%
+ 3 (~13% of total number) grant recommendations totalling $200,00 = ~27%
= 23 grant (in total) recommendations totalling $923,150 = 100%
Since this is the most extensive round of grant recommendations from the Long-Term Future Fund to date with the EA Funds’ new management structure, this is the best apparent opportunity for evaluating the success of the changes made to how the EA Funds are managed. In this round of grantmaking, 87% of the total number of grant recommendations were for efforts of individuals, totalling 73% of the total amount of money that would be disbursed for these grants, that would otherwise have been missed by individual donors, or larger grantmaking bodies.
In other words, the Long-Term Future (LTF) Fund is directly responsible for 87% of 23 grant recommendations made, totalling 73% of $923.15K worth of unique grants, that, presumably, would not have been counterfactually identified had individual donors not been able to pool and coordinate their donations through the LTF Fund. I keep highlighting these numbers, because they can essentially be thought of as the LTF Funds’ current rate of efficiency in fulfilling the purposes it was set up for.
Criticisms and Conservative Estimates
Above is the estimate for the number of grants, and the amount of donations to the EA Funds, that are counterfactually unique to the EA Funds, and can be thought of how effective the impact of the Long-Term Future Fund in particular is. That is the estimate for the grants donors to the EA Funds very probably could not have identified by themselves. Yet another question is would they opt to donate to the grant recommendations that have been just been made by the LTF fund managers? Part of the basis for the EA Funds thus far is to trust the fund mangers’ individual discretion based on their years of expertise or professional experience working in the respective cause area. My above estimates are based on the assumption all the counterfactually unique grant recommendations the LTF Funds make are indeed effective. We can think of those numbers as a ‘liberal’ estimate.
I’ve at least skimmed or read all 180+ comments on this post thus far, and a few persistent concerns with the grant recommendations have stood out. These were concerns that the evidence basis on which some grant recommendations were made wasn’t sufficient to justify the grant, i.e., they were ‘too risky.’ If we exclude grant recommendations that are subject to multiple, unresolved concerns from the LTF Funds, we can make a ‘conservative’ estimate of the percentage and dollar value of counterfactually unique grant recommendations made by the LTF Fund.
Concerns with 1 grant recommendations worth $28,000 to hand out printed copies of fanfiction HPMoR to international math competition medalists.
Concerns with 2 grant recommendations worth $40,000 for individuals who are not currently pursuing one or more specific, concrete projects, but rather are pursuing independent research or self-development. The concern is the grant is based on the fund manager’s (managers’ ?) personal confidence in the individual, and even explication for the grant recommendations expressed concern with the uncertainty in the value of grants like these.
Concerns that with multiple grants made to similar forecasting-based projects, there would be redundancy, in particular concern with 1 grant recommendation worth $70,000 to forecasting company Metaculus that might be better suited to an investment for equity in a startup rather than a grant from a non-profit foundation.
In total, these are 4 grants worth $138,000 that multiple commenters have raised concerns with on the basis the uncertainty for these grants means the grant recommendations don’t seem justified. To clarify, I am not making an assumption about the value of these grants are. All I would say about these particular grants is they are unconventional, but that insofar as the EA Funds are intended to be a kind of index fund willing to back more experimental efforts, these projects fit within the established expectations of how the EA Funds are to be manged. Reading all the comments, the one helpful, concrete suggestion was for the LTF Fund to follow-up in the future with grant recipients and publish their takeaways from the grants.
Of the 20 recommendations made for unique grant recipients worth $673,150, if we were to exclude these 4 recommendations worth $138,000, that leaves 16 of 23, or 69.5% of total recommendations, worth $535,150 of $923,150, or ~58% worth of the total grant recommendations, uniquely attributable to the EA Funds. Again, those grant recommendations excluded from this ‘conservative’ estimate are ruled out based on the uncertainty or lack of confidence in them from commenters, not necessarily the fund managers themselves. While presumably any of the value of any grant recommendation could be disputed, these are the only grant recipients for which multiple commenters have made raised still-unresolved concerns so far. These grants are still initially being made, so whether the best hopes of the fund managers for the value of each of these grants will be borne out is something to follow-up with in the future.
Conclusion
While these numbers don’t address suggestions for how the management of the Long-Term Future Fund can still be improved, overall I would say these numbers show the Long-Term Future Fund has made extremely significant improvement since last year at achieving a high rate of counterfactually unique grants to more nascent or experimental projects that are typically missed in EA donations. I think with some suggested improvements like hiring some professional clerical assistance with managing the Long-Term Future Fund, the Long-Term Future Fund is employing a successful approach to making unique grants. I hope the other EA Funds try emulating and building on this approach. The EA Funds are still relatively new, and so to measure their track record of success with their grants remains to be done, but this report provides a great foundation to start doing so.
You mean it functions like a venture capital fund or angel investor?
This is great! Thank you for the care & attention you put into creating this audit.