Executive summary: A simple model based on historical data suggests the rate of accidental pandemics originating from research activities over the next decade is likely lower than that of zoonotic pandemics, but could become more prominent if risky research continues growing exponentially.
Key points:
One or two historical pandemics are considered to have accidentally emerged from research activities.
Three indicators related to risky research activities all show exponential growth around 2.5% per year.
Extrapolating growth suggests 1-3 accidental pandemics in the next decade, with 56-76% probability of at least one.
This is likely an overestimate due to assumptions like constant probability per research unit and independence.
Accidental pandemics remain less likely than zoonotic ones based on historical frequencies, but could rival them in the long term if research growth continues.
Improved biosafety practices could reduce risks, but need to expand to less developed countries conducting more research.
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Executive summary: A simple model based on historical data suggests the rate of accidental pandemics originating from research activities over the next decade is likely lower than that of zoonotic pandemics, but could become more prominent if risky research continues growing exponentially.
Key points:
One or two historical pandemics are considered to have accidentally emerged from research activities.
Three indicators related to risky research activities all show exponential growth around 2.5% per year.
Extrapolating growth suggests 1-3 accidental pandemics in the next decade, with 56-76% probability of at least one.
This is likely an overestimate due to assumptions like constant probability per research unit and independence.
Accidental pandemics remain less likely than zoonotic ones based on historical frequencies, but could rival them in the long term if research growth continues.
Improved biosafety practices could reduce risks, but need to expand to less developed countries conducting more research.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.