Nice post! Using the individual level data are you able to answer the question of whether forecasts also get better if you start with the “best” 1 forecaster and then progressively add the next best, the next best, etc. where best is defined ex ante (eg prior lifetime Metaculus score)? It’s a different question but might also be of interest for thinking about optimal aggregation.
In principle yes, you’ll just still always have the problem that people are predicting at different time points. If the best and the 2nd best predict weeks or months apart then that changes results.
Nice post! Using the individual level data are you able to answer the question of whether forecasts also get better if you start with the “best” 1 forecaster and then progressively add the next best, the next best, etc. where best is defined ex ante (eg prior lifetime Metaculus score)? It’s a different question but might also be of interest for thinking about optimal aggregation.
In principle yes, you’ll just still always have the problem that people are predicting at different time points. If the best and the 2nd best predict weeks or months apart then that changes results.