Related to this, I find anthropic reasoning pretty suspect, and I don’t think we have a good enough grasp on how to reason about anthropics to draw any strong conclusions about it. The same could be said about choices of priors, e.g., MacAskill vs. Ord where the answer to “are we living at the most influential time in history?” completely hinges on the choice of prior, but we don’t really know the best way to pick a prior. This seems related to anthropic reasoning in that the Doomsday Argument depends on using a certain type of prior distribution over the number of humans who will ever live. My general impression is that we as a society don’t know enough about this kind of thing (and I personally know hardly anything about it). However, it’s possible that some people have correctly figured out the “philosophy of priors” and that knowledge just hasn’t fully propagated yet.