That all makes sense. I do think we need to make the clear distinction between ‘individual’ value drift and ‘legally-binded’ value drift, but you’re probably right that the ~10% may be the best starting point we have for the latter.
It might be that the only way to get a decent estimate of legally-binded value drift in an EA setting is to actually set up a fund and see what happens. I suspect it would make sense to start cautious with putting money into the fund until a low value-drift has been demonstrated (which would admittedly take some time—perhaps a few generations). Overall I suspect it would be worth setting up such a fund for its informational value.
That all makes sense. I do think we need to make the clear distinction between ‘individual’ value drift and ‘legally-binded’ value drift, but you’re probably right that the ~10% may be the best starting point we have for the latter.
It might be that the only way to get a decent estimate of legally-binded value drift in an EA setting is to actually set up a fund and see what happens. I suspect it would make sense to start cautious with putting money into the fund until a low value-drift has been demonstrated (which would admittedly take some time—perhaps a few generations). Overall I suspect it would be worth setting up such a fund for its informational value.
Thanks both! I largely agree and have incorporated an updated estimate into the new model (see above).