Some reasonable points but overall I did not find this insightful.
A few examples of Burja’s sloppy analysis: (1) a “limited no-fly zone” in western Ukraine would be militarily irrelevant (Russia isn’t flying fixed wing aircraft over these areas) and would still be seen by Russia as a major escalation (“how do we know NATO will stop there?”); (2) the idea that China has gotten “everything it wants” is flat wrong, apart from anything else it’s clearly not in China’s interest to see a remilitarized Europe and Japan or an economically wrecked Russia; (3) Burja offers no support for his claim that the west would care much less about an invasion of Taiwan; and (4) a prediction as surprising as war between France and Turkey (both NATO members!) needs more than the zero evidence given.
Burja’s implicit theory seems to be some kind of realism, but he never spelled it out, and he’s not consistent about it. This point, for example, doesn’t fit in a realist framework: “It’s, Russia has invaded our friend, and we want to protect this state or at least help it defend itself.”
I think EAs would do better reading more traditional IR experts than people like Burja, even if they position themselves as rationalist-adjacent.
Some reasonable points but overall I did not find this insightful.
A few examples of Burja’s sloppy analysis: (1) a “limited no-fly zone” in western Ukraine would be militarily irrelevant (Russia isn’t flying fixed wing aircraft over these areas) and would still be seen by Russia as a major escalation (“how do we know NATO will stop there?”); (2) the idea that China has gotten “everything it wants” is flat wrong, apart from anything else it’s clearly not in China’s interest to see a remilitarized Europe and Japan or an economically wrecked Russia; (3) Burja offers no support for his claim that the west would care much less about an invasion of Taiwan; and (4) a prediction as surprising as war between France and Turkey (both NATO members!) needs more than the zero evidence given.
Burja’s implicit theory seems to be some kind of realism, but he never spelled it out, and he’s not consistent about it. This point, for example, doesn’t fit in a realist framework: “It’s, Russia has invaded our friend, and we want to protect this state or at least help it defend itself.”
I think EAs would do better reading more traditional IR experts than people like Burja, even if they position themselves as rationalist-adjacent.