[Edited on 19 Nov 2021: I was asked to remove the links.]
For those who are interested, here is the write-up of my per-user impact estimate (which was based in part on statistical analyses by David Moss): [removed]
The Main Model in Guesstimate is here: [removed]
The Effect Size model, which feeds into the Main Model, is here: [removed]
I was asked to compare it to GiveDirectly donations, so results are expressed as such. Here is the top-level summary:
Our analysis suggests that, compared to doing nothing to relieve anxiety, MindEase causes about as much benefit per paying user as donating $40 (90% confidence interval: $10 to $140) to GiveDirectly. We suspect that other leading apps are similarly effective (perhaps more so), in which case most of the value of MindEase will come from reaching people who would not have accessed alternative treatment.
Due to time constraints and lack of high-quality information, the analysis involved a lot of guesswork and simplifying assumptions. Of the parameters included in our Main Model, the results are most sensitive to the effect sizes of both MindEase and GiveDirectly, the retention of those effects over time, and the choice of outcome metric (DALYs vs WELLBYs). One large, independent study could eliminate much of this uncertainty. Additional factors worth considering include indirect effects (e.g. economic productivity, meat consumption, evidence generation), opportunity costs of team members’ time, and robustness to non-utilitarian worldviews.
Note that this was done around June 2020 so there may be better information on MindEase’s effectiveness by now. Also, I think the Happier Lives Institute has since done a more thorough analysis of the wellbeing impact of GiveDirectly, which could potentially be used to update the estimate.
[Edited on 19 Nov 2021: I was asked to remove the links.]
For those who are interested, here is the write-up of my per-user impact estimate (which was based in part on statistical analyses by David Moss): [removed]
The Main Model in Guesstimate is here: [removed]
The Effect Size model, which feeds into the Main Model, is here: [removed]
I was asked to compare it to GiveDirectly donations, so results are expressed as such. Here is the top-level summary:
Note that this was done around June 2020 so there may be better information on MindEase’s effectiveness by now. Also, I think the Happier Lives Institute has since done a more thorough analysis of the wellbeing impact of GiveDirectly, which could potentially be used to update the estimate.