It’s also more precise and often clearer to talk about particular types of talent, rather than “talent” as a whole e.g. the AI safety space is highly constrained by people with deep expertise in machine learning and global poverty isn’t.
However, when we say “the landscape seem more talent constrained than funding constrained” what we typically mean is that given our view of cause priorities, EA aligned people can generally have a greater impact through direct work than earning to give, and I still think that’s the case.
In 2015 you (Benjamin) wrote a post which, if I’m reading it right, aspires to answer the same question, but is in very direct contradiction with the conclusions of your (Katherine’s) post regarding which causes are relatively talent constrained. I would be interested in hearing about the sources of this disagreement from both of you (Assuming it is a disagreement, and not just the fact that time has passed and things have changed, or an issue of metrics or semantics)
...Most of the causes the effective altruism community supports are more talent constrained than funding constrained. For example (in all of the following, I’ve already taken account of replaceability): 1) International development…2) Building the effective altruism community and priorities research…3)AI safety research...
...The main exception to this – a cause supported by the community that seems more funding constrained than talent constrained – is ending factory farming. Jon Bockman of Animal Charity Evaluators, told me that vegan advocacy charities have lots of enthusiastic volunteers but not enough funds to hire them, meaning that funding is the greater bottleneck (unless you have the potential to be a leader and innovator in the movement). So, the more weight you put on this cause, the more funding constrained you’ll see the community. But the situation could reverse if you think developing meat substitutes is the best approach, because that could be pursued by for-profit companies or within academia.
It sounds like both of you (Katherine and Benjamin) agree that AI is “talent constrained”. Pretty straightforward, it’s hard to find sufficiently talented people with the specialized skills necessary.
It sounds like the two of you diverge on global poverty, for reasons that make sense to me.
Katherine’s analysis, as I understand it, is straightforwardly looking at what Givewell says the current global poverty funding gap is...which means that impact via talent basically relies on doing more good with the existing money, performing better than what is currently out there. (And how was your talent gap estimated? Is it just a counting up of the number of currently hiring open positions on the EA job board?)
Benjamin’s analysis, as I understand it, is that EA’s growing financial influence means that more money is going to come in pretty soon, and also that effective altruists are pretty good at redirecting outside funds to their causes (so, if you build good talent infrastructure and rigorously demonstrate impact and a funding gap, funding will come)
Is this a correct summary of your respective arguments? I understand how two people might come to different conclusions here, given the differing methods of estimating and depending on what they thought about EA’s ability to increase funding over time and close well demonstrated funding gaps.
(As an aside, Benjamin’s post and accompanying documents made some predictions about the next few years—can anyone link me to a retrospective regarding how those predictions have born out?)
It sounds like you diverge on animal rights, for reasons I would like to understand
Benjamin, it sounds like you / Joe Bockman are saying that ending factory farming is exceptional among popular EA causes in having more talent than they can hire and being in sore need of funding.
Whereas Katherine, it sounds like you’re saying that animal rights is particularly in need of talent relative to all the other cause areas you’ve mentioned here.
These seem like pretty diametrically opposed claims. Is this a real disagreement or have I misread? I’m not actually sure what the source of this disagreement is, other than Katherine and Joe having different intuitions, or bird’s eye views of different parts of the landscape? Has Joe written more on this topic? If it’s just a matter of two people’s intuitions, it doesn’t leave much room for evaluating either claim. (I get the sense that Katherine’s claim isn’t based on intuition, but the fact that EA animal organizations are currently expanding, which increases the estimated number of open job postings available in the near future. Is that correct?)
(Motivation: I’m reading this post now as part of the CE incubation program’s reading list, and felt surprised because the conclusions conflicted with my intuitions, some of which I think were originally formed by reading Benjamin’s posts a few years ago. As the program aims to set me on a path which will potentially help me cause redirection of funding, redirection of talent, create room for more talent, and/or create room for more funding within global poverty or animal issues, the answers to these questions may be of practical value to me.)
I’d be happy if either of you could weigh in on this / explain the nature and sources of disagreement (if there is in fact a disagreement) a bit more!
(PS—can I tag two people to be notified by a comment? Or are people notified about everything that occurs within their threads?)
Yes, each cause has different relative needs.
It’s also more precise and often clearer to talk about particular types of talent, rather than “talent” as a whole e.g. the AI safety space is highly constrained by people with deep expertise in machine learning and global poverty isn’t.
However, when we say “the landscape seem more talent constrained than funding constrained” what we typically mean is that given our view of cause priorities, EA aligned people can generally have a greater impact through direct work than earning to give, and I still think that’s the case.
In 2015 you (Benjamin) wrote a post which, if I’m reading it right, aspires to answer the same question, but is in very direct contradiction with the conclusions of your (Katherine’s) post regarding which causes are relatively talent constrained. I would be interested in hearing about the sources of this disagreement from both of you (Assuming it is a disagreement, and not just the fact that time has passed and things have changed, or an issue of metrics or semantics)
here is the relevant excerpt
https://80000hours.org/2015/11/why-you-should-focus-more-on-talent-gaps-not-funding-gaps/
It sounds like both of you (Katherine and Benjamin) agree that AI is “talent constrained”. Pretty straightforward, it’s hard to find sufficiently talented people with the specialized skills necessary.
It sounds like the two of you diverge on global poverty, for reasons that make sense to me.
Katherine’s analysis, as I understand it, is straightforwardly looking at what Givewell says the current global poverty funding gap is...which means that impact via talent basically relies on doing more good with the existing money, performing better than what is currently out there. (And how was your talent gap estimated? Is it just a counting up of the number of currently hiring open positions on the EA job board?)
Benjamin’s analysis, as I understand it, is that EA’s growing financial influence means that more money is going to come in pretty soon, and also that effective altruists are pretty good at redirecting outside funds to their causes (so, if you build good talent infrastructure and rigorously demonstrate impact and a funding gap, funding will come)
Is this a correct summary of your respective arguments? I understand how two people might come to different conclusions here, given the differing methods of estimating and depending on what they thought about EA’s ability to increase funding over time and close well demonstrated funding gaps.
(As an aside, Benjamin’s post and accompanying documents made some predictions about the next few years—can anyone link me to a retrospective regarding how those predictions have born out?)
It sounds like you diverge on animal rights, for reasons I would like to understand
Benjamin, it sounds like you / Joe Bockman are saying that ending factory farming is exceptional among popular EA causes in having more talent than they can hire and being in sore need of funding.
Whereas Katherine, it sounds like you’re saying that animal rights is particularly in need of talent relative to all the other cause areas you’ve mentioned here.
These seem like pretty diametrically opposed claims. Is this a real disagreement or have I misread? I’m not actually sure what the source of this disagreement is, other than Katherine and Joe having different intuitions, or bird’s eye views of different parts of the landscape? Has Joe written more on this topic? If it’s just a matter of two people’s intuitions, it doesn’t leave much room for evaluating either claim. (I get the sense that Katherine’s claim isn’t based on intuition, but the fact that EA animal organizations are currently expanding, which increases the estimated number of open job postings available in the near future. Is that correct?)
(Motivation: I’m reading this post now as part of the CE incubation program’s reading list, and felt surprised because the conclusions conflicted with my intuitions, some of which I think were originally formed by reading Benjamin’s posts a few years ago. As the program aims to set me on a path which will potentially help me cause redirection of funding, redirection of talent, create room for more talent, and/or create room for more funding within global poverty or animal issues, the answers to these questions may be of practical value to me.)
I’d be happy if either of you could weigh in on this / explain the nature and sources of disagreement (if there is in fact a disagreement) a bit more!
(PS—can I tag two people to be notified by a comment? Or are people notified about everything that occurs within their threads?)