A forecasting contest (in addition to the EA criticism contest) to answer “what is the worst hazard that will happen to the EA community in the next couple of years?” (or whatever period people think is more adequate). The best responses, selected by a jury on the basis of their usefulness and justification, receive the first prize; the second prize will be given two years later to the forecaster who predicts the actual answer.
Effective Cassandra
A forecasting contest (in addition to the EA criticism contest) to answer “what is the worst hazard that will happen to the EA community in the next couple of years?” (or whatever period people think is more adequate). The best responses, selected by a jury on the basis of their usefulness and justification, receive the first prize; the second prize will be given two years later to the forecaster who predicts the actual answer.