In my view, the AI timelines work is exactly the kind of research longtermists should do more of to persuade those more skeptical, and test their own assumptions.
Another is Christian Tarsney’s “The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism”.
What I’d like to see next are grounded estimates of the causal effects of longtermist interventions, like research and policy, and including risks of backfire (e.g. accelerating AI development).
In my view, the AI timelines work is exactly the kind of research longtermists should do more of to persuade those more skeptical, and test their own assumptions.
Another is Christian Tarsney’s “The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism”.
What I’d like to see next are grounded estimates of the causal effects of longtermist interventions, like research and policy, and including risks of backfire (e.g. accelerating AI development).