Thanks Vasco, I’m glad you enjoyed it! I corrected the typo and your points about inverse-variance weighting and lognormal distributions are well-taken.
I agree that doing more work to specify what our priors should be in this sort of situation is valuable although I’m unsure if it rises to the level of a crucial consideration. Our ability to predict long-run effects has been an important crux for me hence the work I’ve been doing on it, but in general, it seems to be more of an important consideration for people who lean neartermist than those who lean longtermist.
Thanks Vasco, I’m glad you enjoyed it! I corrected the typo and your points about inverse-variance weighting and lognormal distributions are well-taken.
I agree that doing more work to specify what our priors should be in this sort of situation is valuable although I’m unsure if it rises to the level of a crucial consideration. Our ability to predict long-run effects has been an important crux for me hence the work I’ve been doing on it, but in general, it seems to be more of an important consideration for people who lean neartermist than those who lean longtermist.