I think I was likely 90% in favour of a 6 month pause mostly as a way to wake people up. I guess my main update from that debate was the difficulty of actually implementing a pause.
If you decide to start pushing for a pause, you don’t get nuanced control over when the pause occurs (you likely have to start pushing for it at least a couple of years ahead of when you want it to occur). Further, it’s quite likely that you accidentally reduce the amount of crunchtime by reducing the gap between the leading players and the rest. If this happens, a pause would likely be net-negative.
For an indefinite pause, it’s unclear that you’ll be able to unpause when necessary to avoid someone else front-running you, particularly because you might have to make alliances with people who will want to keep it paused.
So while it may still be worth pausing, it’s very hard to get the details right so that it is robustly net-positive.
I think I was likely 90% in favour of a 6 month pause mostly as a way to wake people up. I guess my main update from that debate was the difficulty of actually implementing a pause.
If you decide to start pushing for a pause, you don’t get nuanced control over when the pause occurs (you likely have to start pushing for it at least a couple of years ahead of when you want it to occur). Further, it’s quite likely that you accidentally reduce the amount of crunchtime by reducing the gap between the leading players and the rest. If this happens, a pause would likely be net-negative.
For an indefinite pause, it’s unclear that you’ll be able to unpause when necessary to avoid someone else front-running you, particularly because you might have to make alliances with people who will want to keep it paused.
So while it may still be worth pausing, it’s very hard to get the details right so that it is robustly net-positive.