I understand that this doesn’t really answer the question at hand, and I want to preface this comment by saying that, but I also want to point out that it is useful for your situation.
Rational animations has this really good video on prediction markets, which I linked here:
https://youtu.be/xA27x7GRMZQ
(this video also has a part 2, which I’ve linked here: https://youtu.be/DB5TfX7eaVY)
TL;DR is that you can “bet” (the main nuance is what “bet” means in this context) on different putcomes of events, such as “will GPT-5 be released to the public before the start of 2025?”, and other questions of the like, many of them being EA-related, and with EA-affilated cervices, such as metaculus.
Because of this, if you’re predicting things already in your work, you could use prediction markets to capitalize off of that knowledge.
I understand that this doesn’t really answer the question at hand, and I want to preface this comment by saying that, but I also want to point out that it is useful for your situation.
Rational animations has this really good video on prediction markets, which I linked here: https://youtu.be/xA27x7GRMZQ (this video also has a part 2, which I’ve linked here: https://youtu.be/DB5TfX7eaVY) TL;DR is that you can “bet” (the main nuance is what “bet” means in this context) on different putcomes of events, such as “will GPT-5 be released to the public before the start of 2025?”, and other questions of the like, many of them being EA-related, and with EA-affilated cervices, such as metaculus.
Because of this, if you’re predicting things already in your work, you could use prediction markets to capitalize off of that knowledge.
I hope this helps!