~100x 95% CI range (mostly from estimates of total current funding to date, and difficulty of continuing with research), so figures below can’t really argue for change in priorities so much as compel further research
This uncertainty is a lower bound, including only statistical uncertainty and not model uncertainty
Differing returns to research are largely driven by disease burden size, so look at diarrheal diseases, malaria, hookworm, ascariasis, trichuriasis, lymphatic filariasis, meningitis, typhoid, and salmonella – i.e. nothing too surprising
Estimated figures:
13.9 DALYs/$1k for the sector as a whole (vs ~20 DALYs/$1k for GWWC top charities back in 2014), 95% CI 1.43-130 DALYs/$1k
Median estimates: diarrheal disease e.g. cholera and dysentry 121 DALYs/$1k, salmonella infections 74 DALYs/$1k, worms ~50 DALYs/$1k, leprosy 0.058 DALYs/$1k
Most of the top diseases have ~100x 95% CI range, except salmonella whose range is ~3,000x(!)
Just came across Max Dalton’s 2014 writeup Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research into neglected diseases, part of Owen Cotton-Barratt’s project on estimating cost-effectiveness of research and similar activities. Some things that stood out to me:
High-level takeaways
~100x 95% CI range (mostly from estimates of total current funding to date, and difficulty of continuing with research), so figures below can’t really argue for change in priorities so much as compel further research
This uncertainty is a lower bound, including only statistical uncertainty and not model uncertainty
Differing returns to research are largely driven by disease burden size, so look at diarrheal diseases, malaria, hookworm, ascariasis, trichuriasis, lymphatic filariasis, meningitis, typhoid, and salmonella – i.e. nothing too surprising
Estimated figures:
13.9 DALYs/$1k for the sector as a whole (vs ~20 DALYs/$1k for GWWC top charities back in 2014), 95% CI 1.43-130 DALYs/$1k
Median estimates: diarrheal disease e.g. cholera and dysentry 121 DALYs/$1k, salmonella infections 74 DALYs/$1k, worms ~50 DALYs/$1k, leprosy 0.058 DALYs/$1k
Most of the top diseases have ~100x 95% CI range, except salmonella whose range is ~3,000x(!)
References
Sources & calculations for estimates above
G-FINDER survey of research funding for neglected diseases
Cotton-Barratt’s essay deriving the simple equation for calculating the estimates above