If the organization chooses to directly support the new researcher, then the net value depends on how much better their project is than the next-most-valuable project.
This is nit-picky, but if the new researcher proposes, say, the best project the org could support, it does not necessarily mean the org cannot support the second-best project (the “next-most-valuable project”), but it might mean that the sixth-best project becomes the seventh-best project, which the org then cannot support.
In general, adding a new project to the pool of projects does not trade off with the next-best project, it pushes out the nth-best project, which would have received support but now does not meet the funding bar. So the marginal value of adding projects that receive support depends on the quality of the projects around the funding bar.
Another way you could think about this is that the net value of the researcher depends on how much better this bundle of projects is than the next-most-valuable bundle.
Essentially, this is the marginal value of new projects in AI safety research, which may be high or low depending on your view of the field.
So I still agree with this next sentence if marginal = the funding margin, i.e., the marginal project is one that is right on the funding bar. Not if marginal = producing a new researcher, who might be way above the funding bar.
I completely agree! The definition of marginal is somewhat ambiguous the way I’ve written it. What I mean to say is that the marginal project is the one that is close to the funding bar, like you pointed out.
This is nit-picky, but if the new researcher proposes, say, the best project the org could support, it does not necessarily mean the org cannot support the second-best project (the “next-most-valuable project”), but it might mean that the sixth-best project becomes the seventh-best project, which the org then cannot support.
In general, adding a new project to the pool of projects does not trade off with the next-best project, it pushes out the nth-best project, which would have received support but now does not meet the funding bar. So the marginal value of adding projects that receive support depends on the quality of the projects around the funding bar.
Another way you could think about this is that the net value of the researcher depends on how much better this bundle of projects is than the next-most-valuable bundle.
So I still agree with this next sentence if marginal = the funding margin, i.e., the marginal project is one that is right on the funding bar. Not if marginal = producing a new researcher, who might be way above the funding bar.
I completely agree! The definition of marginal is somewhat ambiguous the way I’ve written it. What I mean to say is that the marginal project is the one that is close to the funding bar, like you pointed out.