My partner Hannah currently has a grant where she’s working on quantifying the uncertainty of other GiveWell charities using techniques similar to mine, starting with New Incentives. Hopefully, we’ll have fruit to show for other GiveWell charities! There is a lot of interest in this type of work.
I’d love to chat with you (or anyone else interested in Uncertainty Quantification) about current methods and how we can improve them. You can book me on calendly. I’d still learning a lot about how to do this sort of thing properly, and am mainly learning by trying, so I would love to have a chat about ways to improve.
And to add to this, very recently there was a post Quantifying the Uncertainty in AMF! Which still seems a bit in the works but I’m super excited for it.
Hello! My goodness I love this! You’ve really written this in a super accessible way!
Some citations: I have previously Quantified the Uncertainty in the GiveDirectly CEA (using Squiggle). I believe the Happier Lives Institute has done the same thing, as did cole_haus who didn’t do an analysis but built a framework for uncertainty analysis (much like I think you did). I just posted a simple example of calculating the Value of Information on GiveWell models. There’s a question about why GiveWell doesn’t quantity uncertainty
My partner Hannah currently has a grant where she’s working on quantifying the uncertainty of other GiveWell charities using techniques similar to mine, starting with New Incentives. Hopefully, we’ll have fruit to show for other GiveWell charities! There is a lot of interest in this type of work.
I’d love to chat with you (or anyone else interested in Uncertainty Quantification) about current methods and how we can improve them. You can book me on calendly. I’d still learning a lot about how to do this sort of thing properly, and am mainly learning by trying, so I would love to have a chat about ways to improve.
And to add to this, very recently there was a post Quantifying the Uncertainty in AMF! Which still seems a bit in the works but I’m super excited for it.