I agree for those that get a net it’s a good thing and mortality is reduced, and also agree mortality would increase again if no further nets appeared. However this point isn’t material given the volumes involved. 0.4m children at a rate of 6.4 and 11.6m at a rate of 7.7 is an average rate of 7.66 for the 12m children in total.

Even this small effect is diluted further when you consider the 6.4 rate only applies for 1. 74 years after the 2014-2016 distributions, so much lower when you measure mortality in 2019.

Previous AMF distributions fall into the level of rounding error in this counterfactual, which is why I’m saying an uplift from 7.7 to 11.9 is unreasonable.

I’m not sure I follow your point about volumes. The cost-effectiveness model is for those who receive the net. There’s no need to dilute the impact on these people merely because other people don’t experience the same impact. You just say ‘this is the benefit to these people, achieved at this cost’.

I think we both agree that bednets give a 17% reduction in mortality. The question is what mortality rate to apply this 17% to.

GiveWell say 11.9.

I say 7.7.

Based on your points I thought you were either saying (a) 7.7, agreeing with me, (b) an adjusted version of 7.7, which I calculate to be 7.66. Either way we’re agreeing here.

I agree for those that get a net it’s a good thing and mortality is reduced, and also agree mortality would increase again if no further nets appeared. However this point isn’t material given the volumes involved. 0.4m children at a rate of 6.4 and 11.6m at a rate of 7.7 is an average rate of 7.66 for the 12m children in total.

Even this small effect is diluted further when you consider the 6.4 rate only applies for 1. 74 years after the 2014-2016 distributions, so much lower when you measure mortality in 2019.

Previous AMF distributions fall into the level of rounding error in this counterfactual, which is why I’m saying an uplift from 7.7 to 11.9 is unreasonable.

I’m not sure I follow your point about volumes. The cost-effectiveness model is for those who receive the net. There’s no need to dilute the impact on these people merely because other people don’t experience the same impact. You just say ‘this is the benefit to these people, achieved at this cost’.

I think we both agree that bednets give a 17% reduction in mortality. The question is what mortality rate to apply this 17% to.

GiveWell say 11.9.

I say 7.7.

Based on your points I thought you were either saying (a) 7.7, agreeing with me, (b) an adjusted version of 7.7, which I calculate to be 7.66. Either way we’re agreeing here.