Do you think the Dutch book still has similar normative force if the person-affecting view is transitive within option sets, but violates IIA? I think such views are more plausible than intransitive ones, and any intransitive view can be turned into a transitive one that violates IIA using voting methods like beatpath/Schulze. With an intransitive view, I’d say you haven’t finished evaluating the options if you only make the pairwise comparisons.
The options involved might look the same, but now you have to really assume you’re changing which options are actually available over time, which, under one interpretation of an IIA-violating view, fails to respect the view’s assumptions about how to evaluate options: the options or outcomes available will just be what they end up being, and their value will depend on which are available. Maybe this doesn’t make sense, because counterfactuals aren’t actual?
Against an intransitive view, it’s just not clear which option to choose, and we can imagine deliberating from World 1 to World 1 minus $0.98 following the Dutch book argument if we’re unlucky about the order in which we consider the options.
Do you think the Dutch book still has similar normative force if the person-affecting view is transitive within option sets, but violates IIA? I think such views are more plausible than intransitive ones, and any intransitive view can be turned into a transitive one that violates IIA using voting methods like beatpath/Schulze. With an intransitive view, I’d say you haven’t finished evaluating the options if you only make the pairwise comparisons.
The options involved might look the same, but now you have to really assume you’re changing which options are actually available over time, which, under one interpretation of an IIA-violating view, fails to respect the view’s assumptions about how to evaluate options: the options or outcomes available will just be what they end up being, and their value will depend on which are available. Maybe this doesn’t make sense, because counterfactuals aren’t actual?
Against an intransitive view, it’s just not clear which option to choose, and we can imagine deliberating from World 1 to World 1 minus $0.98 following the Dutch book argument if we’re unlucky about the order in which we consider the options.