Holding conferences is not “actually good for the world” in any direct sense. It is good only to the extent that it results in net good outcomes—and you’re quite right that those outcomes can be hard to predict. What I think we have to be careful to avoid is the crediting the hoped-for positive aspects while dismissing the negative aspects as “optics” that cannot be adequately predicted.
Also, you could always commission a survey to generate at least some data on how the public would perceive an action. That doesn’t give much confidence in what the actual perception would be . . . but these sorts of things are hard to measure/predict on both the positive and negative ends. If people are just too unpredictable to make EV estimates based on their reactions to anything, then we should just hold all conferences at the local Motel 6 or wherever the cheapest venue is. “Dollars spent” is at least measurable.
Holding conferences is not “actually good for the world” in any direct sense. It is good only to the extent that it results in net good outcomes—and you’re quite right that those outcomes can be hard to predict. What I think we have to be careful to avoid is the crediting the hoped-for positive aspects while dismissing the negative aspects as “optics” that cannot be adequately predicted.
Also, you could always commission a survey to generate at least some data on how the public would perceive an action. That doesn’t give much confidence in what the actual perception would be . . . but these sorts of things are hard to measure/predict on both the positive and negative ends. If people are just too unpredictable to make EV estimates based on their reactions to anything, then we should just hold all conferences at the local Motel 6 or wherever the cheapest venue is. “Dollars spent” is at least measurable.