Required watermarking and traceability on advanced models, so that we can match AI outputs to specific AI models and developers.
Watermarking is mostly an open technical problem—there’s no great existing best-practice that government can just require labs to implement. (I know you mean that government should require the limited stuff we know how to do.)
(2) Incident reporting
Some ideas for increasing the government’s visibility into AI development are
If the pause threshold is in terms of FLOP rather than E-FLOP, the dotted green line and horizontal blue line should actually be slightly upward sloping.
(If the pause threshold is in terms of E-FLOP, then (a) the FLOP threshold needs to decrease over time and (b) capabilities still increase during the pause because of inference-time improvements in algorithms and increases in compute.)
(Also I want to flag that assuming progress is linear in log(E-FLOP) over time by default is a reasonable simplification for your purposes, but it is a simplification.)
Small stuff:
(1) Watermarking
Watermarking is mostly an open technical problem—there’s no great existing best-practice that government can just require labs to implement. (I know you mean that government should require the limited stuff we know how to do.)
(2) Incident reporting
Government should also facilitate or require incident reporting.
(3) Overhang
If the pause threshold is in terms of FLOP rather than E-FLOP, the dotted green line and horizontal blue line should actually be slightly upward sloping.
(If the pause threshold is in terms of E-FLOP, then (a) the FLOP threshold needs to decrease over time and (b) capabilities still increase during the pause because of inference-time improvements in algorithms and increases in compute.)
(Also I want to flag that assuming progress is linear in log(E-FLOP) over time by default is a reasonable simplification for your purposes, but it is a simplification.)