Applied Divinity Studies and Rossa O’Keeffe-O’Donovan both pointed out that talking about a single ‘bar’ can sometimes be misleading.
For instance, it can often be worth supporting a startup charity that has, say, a 10% chance of being above the bar, even if the expected value is that they’re below the bar. This is because funding them provides value of information about their true effectiveness.
It can also been worth supporting organisations that are only a little above the bar but might be highly scalable, since that can create more total giving opportunities above the bar in the longer term.
As a quick summary, I think it’s reasonable to say something like: “funders would like to eventually donate to as many opportunities above the bar as possible.”
To that end, when assessing specific opportunities, they’ll want to consider all of:
What’s the probability it’s above the bar?
If turns out to be above above the bar, how much above the bar is it?
If it turns out to be above the bar, how scalable is it?
In each case, the higher the better.
The eventual goal is something like “donating as many $ above the bar weighted by cost-effectiveness as possible”.
Applied Divinity Studies and Rossa O’Keeffe-O’Donovan both pointed out that talking about a single ‘bar’ can sometimes be misleading.
For instance, it can often be worth supporting a startup charity that has, say, a 10% chance of being above the bar, even if the expected value is that they’re below the bar. This is because funding them provides value of information about their true effectiveness.
It can also been worth supporting organisations that are only a little above the bar but might be highly scalable, since that can create more total giving opportunities above the bar in the longer term.
As a quick summary, I think it’s reasonable to say something like: “funders would like to eventually donate to as many opportunities above the bar as possible.”
To that end, when assessing specific opportunities, they’ll want to consider all of:
What’s the probability it’s above the bar?
If turns out to be above above the bar, how much above the bar is it?
If it turns out to be above the bar, how scalable is it?
In each case, the higher the better.
The eventual goal is something like “donating as many $ above the bar weighted by cost-effectiveness as possible”.