I agree there’s no single unified resource. Having said that, I found Richard Ngo’s “five alignment clusters” pretty helpful for bucketing different groups & arguments together. Reposting below:
MIRI cluster. Think that P(doom) is very high, based on intuitions about instrumental convergence, deceptive alignment, etc. Does work that’s very different from mainstream ML. Central members: Eliezer Yudkowsky, Nate Soares.
Structural risk cluster. Think that doom is more likely than not, but not for the same reasons as the MIRI cluster. Instead, this cluster focuses on systemic risks, multi-agent alignment, selective forces outside gradient descent, etc. Often work that’s fairly continuous with mainstream ML, but willing to be unusually speculative by the standards of the field. Central members: Dan Hendrycks, David Krueger, Andrew Critch.
Constellation cluster. More optimistic than either of the previous two clusters. Focuses more on risk from power-seeking AI than the structural risk cluster, but does work that is more speculative or conceptually-oriented than mainstream ML. Central members: Paul Christiano, Buck Shlegeris, Holden Karnofsky. (Named after Constellation coworking space.)
Prosaic cluster. Focuses on empirical ML work and the scaling hypothesis, is typically skeptical of theoretical or conceptual arguments. Short timelines in general. Central members: Dario Amodei, Jan Leike, Ilya Sutskever.
Mainstream cluster. Alignment researchers who are closest to mainstream ML. Focuses much less on backchaining from specific threat models and more on promoting robustly valuable research. Typically more concerned about misuse than misalignment, although worried about both. Central members: Scott Aaronson, David Bau.
To return to the question “what is the current best single article (or set of articles) that provide a well-reasoned and comprehensive case for believing that there is a substantial (>10%) probability of an AI catastrophe this century?”, my guess is that these different groups would respond as follows:[1]
I agree there’s no single unified resource. Having said that, I found Richard Ngo’s “five alignment clusters” pretty helpful for bucketing different groups & arguments together. Reposting below:
To return to the question “what is the current best single article (or set of articles) that provide a well-reasoned and comprehensive case for believing that there is a substantial (>10%) probability of an AI catastrophe this century?”, my guess is that these different groups would respond as follows:[1]
MIRI cluster: List of Lethalities, Sharp Left Turn, Superintelligence
Structural Risk cluster: Natural selection favours AIs, RAAP
Constellation cluster: Is Power-seeking AI an x-risk, some Cold Takes posts, Scheming AIs
Prosaic cluster: Concrete problems in AI safety, [perhaps something more recent?]
Mainstream cluster: Reform AI Alignment, [not sure—perhaps nothing arguing for >10%?]
But I could easily be misrepresenting these different groups’ “core” argument, and I haven’t read all of these, so could be misunderstanding