I would really like to add some kind of limit order mode. I also often set up a limit order to sell out of my position once I have reached a certain profit which I would like to be able to do via the calculator.
The main reason I haven’t done this, and the thing suggested by @Matthew_Barnett below of adding a discount rate, is that I wanted to keep this very simple so that people aren’t overwhelmed by settings. I think the cost of adding an additional setting is quite high because:
A lot of people will be put off and literally just click away if there are too many settings, and then go back to making worse bets than if they only been shown a subset of those settings
People (me) will waste time fiddling with settings that aren’t that important, and either end up making worse bets or just not benefit that much for the extra cost (or think “ugh I have to estimate the expected resolution time in both the YES and NO case” when they see a favourable market, and just not bet on it instead). The discount/expected growth rate is very susceptible to this I think, because it’s easy to be overconfident and avoid ok bets because of the perceived opportunity cost (especially as your growth rate will go down as your balance goes up and it’s harder to find markets that can absorb all your mana, so people are likely to overestimate their long term growth rate)
On the practical side, every extra setting increases the chance of bugs, and being pretty confident that the answer is correct is important for a calculator that makes important decisions for you
My current plan is to leave this calculator basically as is, and built another more fully featured one for advanced users, which will hopefully include these things:
Accounting for several estimates at the same time, and remembering previous bets
Time discounting (which overlaps with the one above)
Limit orders, or some other way of automatically buying in/out of a position over time
Estimating the resolution time in each outcome (this is important if you have a market like “Will Donald Trump tweet before the end of 2023”, where it can resolve YES early but can’t resolve NO early. It changes the ROI quite a bit)
I’m not 100% sure this is the right approach though, because I could throw some of these things in “Advanced settings” pretty easily (within a week or two), whereas building the better thing would take at least a couple of months. I’d be interested in your thoughts on this seeing as you’re an actual real user!
I think I’m much more interested in the limit order mode than any of the other features you mentioned, so if there’s room for a single additional setting inside the current calculator, I’d want it to be that one. However, I agree with your general thoughts on the cost of additional features, and all the other ones you mention do seem useful!
One idea: would it be possible to have a limit order mode? This would be useful I think!
I would really like to add some kind of limit order mode. I also often set up a limit order to sell out of my position once I have reached a certain profit which I would like to be able to do via the calculator.
The main reason I haven’t done this, and the thing suggested by @Matthew_Barnett below of adding a discount rate, is that I wanted to keep this very simple so that people aren’t overwhelmed by settings. I think the cost of adding an additional setting is quite high because:
A lot of people will be put off and literally just click away if there are too many settings, and then go back to making worse bets than if they only been shown a subset of those settings
People (me) will waste time fiddling with settings that aren’t that important, and either end up making worse bets or just not benefit that much for the extra cost (or think “ugh I have to estimate the expected resolution time in both the YES and NO case” when they see a favourable market, and just not bet on it instead). The discount/expected growth rate is very susceptible to this I think, because it’s easy to be overconfident and avoid ok bets because of the perceived opportunity cost (especially as your growth rate will go down as your balance goes up and it’s harder to find markets that can absorb all your mana, so people are likely to overestimate their long term growth rate)
On the practical side, every extra setting increases the chance of bugs, and being pretty confident that the answer is correct is important for a calculator that makes important decisions for you
My current plan is to leave this calculator basically as is, and built another more fully featured one for advanced users, which will hopefully include these things:
Accounting for several estimates at the same time, and remembering previous bets
Time discounting (which overlaps with the one above)
Limit orders, or some other way of automatically buying in/out of a position over time
Estimating the resolution time in each outcome (this is important if you have a market like “Will Donald Trump tweet before the end of 2023”, where it can resolve YES early but can’t resolve NO early. It changes the ROI quite a bit)
I’m not 100% sure this is the right approach though, because I could throw some of these things in “Advanced settings” pretty easily (within a week or two), whereas building the better thing would take at least a couple of months. I’d be interested in your thoughts on this seeing as you’re an actual real user!
I think I’m much more interested in the limit order mode than any of the other features you mentioned, so if there’s room for a single additional setting inside the current calculator, I’d want it to be that one. However, I agree with your general thoughts on the cost of additional features, and all the other ones you mention do seem useful!
The way I imagine this working is that the tool could make its normal slippage assumptions until the limit is hit, and no more slippage after that