“You have total loans greater than your current balance. Under strict Kelly betting, you should not bet at all in this scenario because there is non-zero risk of ruin. This calculator allows some leeway in this, and will still recommend a bet as long as losing all your money does not actually occur in any of the (up to 50,000) scenarios it simulates.”
Does this take into account the fact that I could liquidate a position to generate more balance and avoid ruin?
It doesn’t account for that unfortunately, one of the simplifying assumptions it makes is that you will wait for all your positions to resolve rather than selling them.
I ask because of this message I got
“You have total loans greater than your current balance. Under strict Kelly betting, you should not bet at all in this scenario because there is non-zero risk of ruin. This calculator allows some leeway in this, and will still recommend a bet as long as losing all your money does not actually occur in any of the (up to 50,000) scenarios it simulates.”
Does this take into account the fact that I could liquidate a position to generate more balance and avoid ruin?
It doesn’t account for that unfortunately, one of the simplifying assumptions it makes is that you will wait for all your positions to resolve rather than selling them.