Given the large number of animals who would be spared the suffering involved in factory farming by making the transition to CAP happen slightly more quickly, even a small chance of the additional funding making the difference would justify donating to CAP research over vegan advocacy.
For example, let’s consider someone with $1,000,000 to give away. According to the ACE impact calculator, if you spent that amount of money purchasing leaflets for volunteers to distribute, you would spare 4,000,000 animals from factory farming. What about if you spent it on grants for academics researching cultured chicken meat? If you think that there is at least a one in one hundred chance that you will make each point in the transition away from eating factory farmed chicken in the United States occur just one month earlier, then you would expect to spare at least 7,000,000 chickens from factory farming (8,800,000,000 chickens slaughtered in the US last year divided by 12 months in a year multiplied by 0.01 probability). I did leave out wild caught fish in my estimate of the total number of animals spared by leafleting (which makes it an underestimate), but I also left out factory farmed chickens outside the United States in my estimate of the total number of animals spared by CAP research (which also makes it an underestimate).
Because of the large number of animals that would be saved by even a slightly quicker transition away from factory farming, I think the top donors focused on animals should seriously consider grants for CAP research when the research is likely to meaningfully advance the transition to CAP.
One potential counterargument to this is that the primary constraint on the adoption of cultured animal products is a lack of demand rather than a lack of supply. If nobody wants cultured animal products for the next half century, then bringing them to market at a competitive price in one decade instead of two decades has no effect for the next half century. There does seem to be some evidence for this view: http://www.pewinternet.org/files/2014/04/PI_2014.04.16_TechFuture_driverless_cars.png
However, while more animal advocacy now could increase the demand for CAP thirty years from now, introducing CAP a decade from now instead of two decades from now will also do that. Specifically, technology adoption tends to follow a pattern with some people adopting it immediately, some people adopting it after a few years, some people adopting it after most of their friends have adopted it, and some people never adopting it. Because earlier introduction of CAP will shift the adoption date for more than just those who adopt it immediately, it may have a very significant effect on demand several decades from now.
Given the large number of animals who would be spared the suffering involved in factory farming by making the transition to CAP happen slightly more quickly, even a small chance of the additional funding making the difference would justify donating to CAP research over vegan advocacy.
For example, let’s consider someone with $1,000,000 to give away. According to the ACE impact calculator, if you spent that amount of money purchasing leaflets for volunteers to distribute, you would spare 4,000,000 animals from factory farming. What about if you spent it on grants for academics researching cultured chicken meat? If you think that there is at least a one in one hundred chance that you will make each point in the transition away from eating factory farmed chicken in the United States occur just one month earlier, then you would expect to spare at least 7,000,000 chickens from factory farming (8,800,000,000 chickens slaughtered in the US last year divided by 12 months in a year multiplied by 0.01 probability). I did leave out wild caught fish in my estimate of the total number of animals spared by leafleting (which makes it an underestimate), but I also left out factory farmed chickens outside the United States in my estimate of the total number of animals spared by CAP research (which also makes it an underestimate).
Because of the large number of animals that would be saved by even a slightly quicker transition away from factory farming, I think the top donors focused on animals should seriously consider grants for CAP research when the research is likely to meaningfully advance the transition to CAP.
One potential counterargument to this is that the primary constraint on the adoption of cultured animal products is a lack of demand rather than a lack of supply. If nobody wants cultured animal products for the next half century, then bringing them to market at a competitive price in one decade instead of two decades has no effect for the next half century. There does seem to be some evidence for this view: http://www.pewinternet.org/files/2014/04/PI_2014.04.16_TechFuture_driverless_cars.png
However, while more animal advocacy now could increase the demand for CAP thirty years from now, introducing CAP a decade from now instead of two decades from now will also do that. Specifically, technology adoption tends to follow a pattern with some people adopting it immediately, some people adopting it after a few years, some people adopting it after most of their friends have adopted it, and some people never adopting it. Because earlier introduction of CAP will shift the adoption date for more than just those who adopt it immediately, it may have a very significant effect on demand several decades from now.