Uncertainty As we frequently point out, one should take the estimates with a grain of salt and consider the reported uncertainty (e.g. the old estimate had something like 0.1 USD/tCO2e to 10 USD/tCO2e) and, IIRC, the impact report also reports that these estimates are extremely uncertain and reports wide ranges.
As we discussed in our recent methodology-focused update, we think large uncertainty is unavoidable when operating in climate as a global decadal challenge with the most effective interventions inherently non-RCT-able (FWIW, I would think similarly about Global Health and Development, which is why I think the certainty focus of (historical) GiveWell can be harmful when the goal is to risk-neutrally identify the best interventions), so our main focus is on getting the relative comparisons right which is what is decision-relevant.
Offsets provide no information with regards to the cost-effectiveness of risk-neutral philanthropy That said, using offsets to make the case that our estimates must be overly optimistic, seems mistaken.
Offsets solve a different problem, high certainty (uncertainty-avoidant) emissions reductions from direct action. This cannot be very cheap.
It is very plausible that risk-neutrality and leveraging mechanisms such as advocacy, trajectory changes, and others provides a large multiplier upon offsets at the cost of more uncertainty (though that uncertainty cuts both ways, uncertain things can also turn out to be even better than their expected value suggests). FWIW, Giving Green who used to be critical of this claim has also converged onto this position, now emphasizing philanthropic bets over offsets quite explicitly and much more confidently than they used to.
Just as OP thinks that their risk-neutral global health and development works dominates GiveWell charities despite being more uncertain about their own work, it is entirely plausible that credible offsets cost > USD 100t/CO2e while good philanthropic opportunities dominate this by ~100x or more. In other words, being uncertainty-avoidant has real costs in terms of expected impact, so offsets do not provide a credible benchmark from which to infer whether estimates on risk-neutral philanthropy are off.
Should we encourage offsetting? I should also note that I am quite critical of offsetting as a frame, one needs to be quite careful to not create / amplify a frame of very limited moral ambition (I think you did a good job in your post, though it is still further in terms of promoting offsetting than I’d go). I generally try to frame donating to climate charities as a form of political action rather than offsetting.
Thanks, Luke!
Uncertainty
As we frequently point out, one should take the estimates with a grain of salt and consider the reported uncertainty (e.g. the old estimate had something like 0.1 USD/tCO2e to 10 USD/tCO2e) and, IIRC, the impact report also reports that these estimates are extremely uncertain and reports wide ranges.
As we discussed in our recent methodology-focused update, we think large uncertainty is unavoidable when operating in climate as a global decadal challenge with the most effective interventions inherently non-RCT-able (FWIW, I would think similarly about Global Health and Development, which is why I think the certainty focus of (historical) GiveWell can be harmful when the goal is to risk-neutrally identify the best interventions), so our main focus is on getting the relative comparisons right which is what is decision-relevant.
Offsets provide no information with regards to the cost-effectiveness of risk-neutral philanthropy
That said, using offsets to make the case that our estimates must be overly optimistic, seems mistaken.
Offsets solve a different problem, high certainty (uncertainty-avoidant) emissions reductions from direct action. This cannot be very cheap.
It is very plausible that risk-neutrality and leveraging mechanisms such as advocacy, trajectory changes, and others provides a large multiplier upon offsets at the cost of more uncertainty (though that uncertainty cuts both ways, uncertain things can also turn out to be even better than their expected value suggests). FWIW, Giving Green who used to be critical of this claim has also converged onto this position, now emphasizing philanthropic bets over offsets quite explicitly and much more confidently than they used to.
Just as OP thinks that their risk-neutral global health and development works dominates GiveWell charities despite being more uncertain about their own work, it is entirely plausible that credible offsets cost > USD 100t/CO2e while good philanthropic opportunities dominate this by ~100x or more. In other words, being uncertainty-avoidant has real costs in terms of expected impact, so offsets do not provide a credible benchmark from which to infer whether estimates on risk-neutral philanthropy are off.
Should we encourage offsetting?
I should also note that I am quite critical of offsetting as a frame, one needs to be quite careful to not create / amplify a frame of very limited moral ambition (I think you did a good job in your post, though it is still further in terms of promoting offsetting than I’d go). I generally try to frame donating to climate charities as a form of political action rather than offsetting.