I really like this thought experiment, thank you for sharing!
Personally, I agree with you, and I think the answer to your headline question is: yes! Your reasoning makes sense to me anyway. (At least if we don’t combine the Self-Sampling Assumption with another assumption like the Self-Indication Assumption as well).
I really like this thought experiment, thank you for sharing!
Personally, I agree with you, and I think the answer to your headline question is: yes! Your reasoning makes sense to me anyway. (At least if we don’t combine the Self-Sampling Assumption with another assumption like the Self-Indication Assumption as well).
I think that your example is essentially equivalent to the Doomsday argument, or the Adam+Eve paradox, see here: https://​​anthropic-principle.com/​​preprints/​​cau/​​paradoxes But I like that your thought experiment really isolates the key problem and puts precise numbers on it!