I don’t think Redwood’s project had identical goals, and would strongly disagree with someone saying it’s duplicative.
I agree it is not duplicative. It’s been a while, but if I recall correctly the main difference seemed to be that they chose a task with gave them a extra nine of reliability (started with an initially easier task) and pursued it more thoroughly.
think I’m comparably skeptical of all of the evidence on offer for claims of the form “doing research on X leads to differential progress on Y,”
I think if we find that improvement of X leads to improvement on Y, then that’s some evidence, but it doesn’t establish that it’s differential. If we find that improvement on X also leads to progress on thing Z that is highly indicative of general capabilities, then that’s evidence against. If we find that it mainly affects Y but not other things Z, then that’s reasonable evidence it’s differential. For example, so far, transparency hasn’t affected general capabilities, so I read that as evidence of differential technological progress. As another example, I think trojan defense research differentially improves our understanding our trojans; I don’t see it making models better at coding or gaining new general instrumental skills.
I think commonsense is too unreliable of a guide when thinking about deep learning; deep learning findings are phenomena are often unintelligible even in hindsight (I still don’t understand why some of my research papers’ methods work). That’s why I’d prefer empirical evidence. Empirical research claiming to differentially improve safety should demonstrate a differential safety improvement empirically.
I agree it is not duplicative. It’s been a while, but if I recall correctly the main difference seemed to be that they chose a task with gave them a extra nine of reliability (started with an initially easier task) and pursued it more thoroughly.
I think if we find that improvement of X leads to improvement on Y, then that’s some evidence, but it doesn’t establish that it’s differential. If we find that improvement on X also leads to progress on thing Z that is highly indicative of general capabilities, then that’s evidence against. If we find that it mainly affects Y but not other things Z, then that’s reasonable evidence it’s differential. For example, so far, transparency hasn’t affected general capabilities, so I read that as evidence of differential technological progress. As another example, I think trojan defense research differentially improves our understanding our trojans; I don’t see it making models better at coding or gaining new general instrumental skills.
I think commonsense is too unreliable of a guide when thinking about deep learning; deep learning findings are phenomena are often unintelligible even in hindsight (I still don’t understand why some of my research papers’ methods work). That’s why I’d prefer empirical evidence. Empirical research claiming to differentially improve safety should demonstrate a differential safety improvement empirically.