Low confidence flag, but from what Iāve heard, even GiveDirectly would be saturated quite early by that amount of money, and not be able to distribute it. If anyone has a figure on where that threshold is (or thinks Iām wrong), Iād be interested!
My sense is that youāre right. IIRC diminishing returns are more salient for AMF than for GiveDirectly, and one of the key arguments pro GiveDirectly would be that flat returns persist longerābut probably when they make this argument theyāre thinking on the scale of $100Mā$1B, not hundreds of billions.
Perhaps the best case in point would be Bolsa FamĆlia: ~$30B yearly budget, one of the largest conditional cash transfer programs in the world, increased ~5-fold over the past few years, noticeably turned into a less effective program imho, but still seems like one of the most effective programs from the Brazilian government
I wouldnāt think of this as a matter of thresholds but continuously decreasing returns, tho
This makes sense to me, and I recognize it would be harder than just tossing money onto the streets. The point I was trying to make is that the bar is pretty high, and the vibes Iām getting are that we are far short of that bar at the moment.
Low confidence flag, but from what Iāve heard, even GiveDirectly would be saturated quite early by that amount of money, and not be able to distribute it. If anyone has a figure on where that threshold is (or thinks Iām wrong), Iād be interested!
My sense is that youāre right. IIRC diminishing returns are more salient for AMF than for GiveDirectly, and one of the key arguments pro GiveDirectly would be that flat returns persist longerābut probably when they make this argument theyāre thinking on the scale of $100Mā$1B, not hundreds of billions.
Perhaps the best case in point would be Bolsa FamĆlia: ~$30B yearly budget, one of the largest conditional cash transfer programs in the world, increased ~5-fold over the past few years, noticeably turned into a less effective program imho, but still seems like one of the most effective programs from the Brazilian government
I wouldnāt think of this as a matter of thresholds but continuously decreasing returns, tho
This makes sense to me, and I recognize it would be harder than just tossing money onto the streets. The point I was trying to make is that the bar is pretty high, and the vibes Iām getting are that we are far short of that bar at the moment.