Why is there so much uncertainty in how much Open Philanthropy will contribute in the remainder of 2023? Can you just ask them? Do they know yet how much it’ll be? I’m surprised that so much of the uncertainty in your 2023 fundraising is due to the OP contribution; I’d have expected the opposite.
Hi Robi, thanks for the question! This is Isabel Arjmand from GiveWell – I wrote the above post, and I run the model we use to forecast funds raised.
The uncertainty primarily stems from the fact that Open Philanthropy is in the process of reconsidering how it allocates funding across cause areas.
We’ve spoken with Open Philanthropy about their plans, and our understanding is that the amount of funding Open Philanthropy might give to GiveWell in the future is highly uncertain at this point. Our impression is that it could be hundreds of millions of dollars annually or could be very little. While the funding we may receive from Open Philanthropy in the future is uncertain, Open Philanthropy confirmed in conversation with us that its confidence in GiveWell’s research hasn’t changed.
Based on our qualitative impressions of the uncertainty and of the range of plausible outcomes, we created a quantitative model for what Open Philanthropy might give in the future, which is what feeds into our forecasts.
We expect to know more later this year once Open Philanthropy has wrapped up this project.
Please let us know if you have any more questions!
Why is there so much uncertainty in how much Open Philanthropy will contribute in the remainder of 2023? Can you just ask them? Do they know yet how much it’ll be? I’m surprised that so much of the uncertainty in your 2023 fundraising is due to the OP contribution; I’d have expected the opposite.
Hi Robi, thanks for the question! This is Isabel Arjmand from GiveWell – I wrote the above post, and I run the model we use to forecast funds raised.
The uncertainty primarily stems from the fact that Open Philanthropy is in the process of reconsidering how it allocates funding across cause areas.
We’ve spoken with Open Philanthropy about their plans, and our understanding is that the amount of funding Open Philanthropy might give to GiveWell in the future is highly uncertain at this point. Our impression is that it could be hundreds of millions of dollars annually or could be very little. While the funding we may receive from Open Philanthropy in the future is uncertain, Open Philanthropy confirmed in conversation with us that its confidence in GiveWell’s research hasn’t changed.
Based on our qualitative impressions of the uncertainty and of the range of plausible outcomes, we created a quantitative model for what Open Philanthropy might give in the future, which is what feeds into our forecasts.
We expect to know more later this year once Open Philanthropy has wrapped up this project.
Please let us know if you have any more questions!