Haydn, would you be able to quantify the probability that, in your assessment, climate change will indirectly cause human extinction this century, relative to biorisk? Benjamin Hilton speculates that it’s less than 0.1x, but it’s not clear to me whether you disagree with this estimate (assuming you do) because you think it’s closer to 0.3x, 1x, or 3x. Having more clarity on this would help me understand this discussion better, I think.
Haydn, would you be able to quantify the probability that, in your assessment, climate change will indirectly cause human extinction this century, relative to biorisk? Benjamin Hilton speculates that it’s less than 0.1x, but it’s not clear to me whether you disagree with this estimate (assuming you do) because you think it’s closer to 0.3x, 1x, or 3x. Having more clarity on this would help me understand this discussion better, I think.