I think this comment demonstrates the importance of quantifying probabilities. e.g. you write:
Could agriculture cope with projected warming? Possibly, maybe probably. Can it do so while supply chains, global power relations and financial systems are disrupted or in crisis? That’s a much harder prospect.
I can imagine either kinda agreeing with this comment, or completely disagreeing, depending on how we’re each defining “possibly”, “probably”, and “much harder”.
For what it’s worth, I also think it’s probably that agriculture will cope with projected warming. In fact, I think it’s extremely likely that, even conditional on geopolitical disruptions, the effects of technological change will swamp any negative effects of warming. To operationalize, I’d say something like: there’s a 90% chance that global agricultural productivity will be higher in 50 years than it is today.[1]
I think this comment demonstrates the importance of quantifying probabilities. e.g. you write:
I can imagine either kinda agreeing with this comment, or completely disagreeing, depending on how we’re each defining “possibly”, “probably”, and “much harder”.
For what it’s worth, I also think it’s probably that agriculture will cope with projected warming. In fact, I think it’s extremely likely that, even conditional on geopolitical disruptions, the effects of technological change will swamp any negative effects of warming. To operationalize, I’d say something like: there’s a 90% chance that global agricultural productivity will be higher in 50 years than it is today.[1]
Note that this is true at the global level. I do expect regional food crises due to droughts. On the whole, I again believe with high confidence (again, like 90%) that the famine death rate in the 21st century will be lower than it was in the 20th century. But of course it won’t be zero. I’d support initiatives like hugely increasing ODA and reforming the World Food Program (which is literally the worst).
I haven’t modelled this out and I’d expect that probability would change +/- 10 p.p. if I spent another 15 minutes thinking about it.