Many thanks to you & the others in the comments for the insightful discussion. Could you clarify a few points:
You state that 2.5 degrees warming by 2100 is widely accepted as the likely outcome of ‘business as usual’ - does this correspond to one of the IPCC scenarios?
You state that >6 degrees warming by 2100 is highly unlikely (risk seems ‘negligible’). Again, is this conclusion drawn from the IPCC report
If you have any additional resources to back these statements up I would love to read them—thanks!
Hi John,
Many thanks to you & the others in the comments for the insightful discussion. Could you clarify a few points:
You state that 2.5 degrees warming by 2100 is widely accepted as the likely outcome of ‘business as usual’ - does this correspond to one of the IPCC scenarios?
You state that >6 degrees warming by 2100 is highly unlikely (risk seems ‘negligible’). Again, is this conclusion drawn from the IPCC report
If you have any additional resources to back these statements up I would love to read them—thanks!
I think you’ll find answers to those questions in section 1 of John and Johannes’s recent post on climate projections. IIRC the answers are yes, and those numbers correspond to RCP4.5.