Some views on which increasing ¯v is more important:
If the future is of zero or net-negative value
This is a good point, and it’s worth pointing out that increasing ¯v is always good whereas increasing τ is only good if the future is of positive value. So risk aversion reduces the value of increasing τ relative to increasing ¯v, provided we put some probability on a bad future.
Some views on which increasing τ is more important:
If there’s a “low” upper bound on value, which we expect almost all future civilisations to meet
What do you mean by civilisation? Maybe I’m nitpicking but it seems that even if there is a low upper bound on value for a civilisation, you may still be able to increase ¯v by creating a greater number of civilisations e.g. by spreading further in the universe or creating more “digital civilisations”.
This is a good point, and it’s worth pointing out that increasing ¯v is always good whereas increasing τ is only good if the future is of positive value. So risk aversion reduces the value of increasing τ relative to increasing ¯v, provided we put some probability on a bad future.
Agree this is worth pointing out! I’ve a draft paper that goes into some of this stuff in more detail, and I make this argument.
Another potential argument for trying to improve ¯v is that, plausibly at least, the value lost as a result of the gap between expected-¯v and best-possible-¯v is greater that the value lost as a result of the gap between expected-τ and best-possible-τ. So in that sense the problem that expected-¯v is not as high as it could be is more “important” (in the ITN sense) than the problem that the expected τ is not as high as it could be.
This is a good point, and it’s worth pointing out that increasing ¯v is always good whereas increasing τ is only good if the future is of positive value. So risk aversion reduces the value of increasing τ relative to increasing ¯v, provided we put some probability on a bad future.
What do you mean by civilisation? Maybe I’m nitpicking but it seems that even if there is a low upper bound on value for a civilisation, you may still be able to increase ¯v by creating a greater number of civilisations e.g. by spreading further in the universe or creating more “digital civilisations”.
Agree this is worth pointing out! I’ve a draft paper that goes into some of this stuff in more detail, and I make this argument.
Another potential argument for trying to improve ¯v is that, plausibly at least, the value lost as a result of the gap between expected-¯v and best-possible-¯v is greater that the value lost as a result of the gap between expected-τ and best-possible-τ. So in that sense the problem that expected-¯v is not as high as it could be is more “important” (in the ITN sense) than the problem that the expected τ is not as high as it could be.